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Games / Week 12 / NC State @ Florida State
64
Away
NC State
Wolfpack
#71 · 3-3
Week 12 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL · Forecast TBA
All-time series
NC State 17 – 27 Florida State
44 since 1952 · NCSU 4 straight
Last 2025 NC State 21–11
72
Florida State
Seminoles
#39 · 3-3
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Pick a winner · locks at kickoff

Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.

Model vs market

Florida State is favored: 77% to win, by about 12 points.

No betting line yet.

Our model 77%
Win chanceExpected margin
Our model77%Florida State by 11.6
Betting market——
Difference——

The Matchup

NC StatevsFlorida State
73
QB
CJ Bailey
1,507 yds · 9 TD · 4 INT
QB
FSU +1
74
QB
Ashton Daniels
1,320 yds · 8 TD · 7 INT
6.3 rushing EPA per game, top 1% of startersDual Threat
55
RB
Dylan McCoy
78 yds · 1 TD · 0 rec
RB
FSU +20
75
RB
Ousmane Kromah
565 yds · 5 TD · 11 rec
78
WR
Keenan Jackson
27 rec · 400 yds · 5 TD
WR
NCSU +4
74
WR
Micahi Danzy
19 rec · 293 yds · 2 TD
75
TE
Preston Douglas
24 rec · 286 yds · 1 TD
TE
NCSU +4
71
TE
Desirrio Riles
4 rec · 17 yds · 0 TD
69
OL
Teague Andersen
6 starts
OL
FSU +17
86
OL
Xavier Chaplin
6 starts
starter on a top run-blocking unitRoad Grader43 career startsIron Man
70
DE
Chase Bond
8 tkl · 1 sacks · 1 TFL
DL
FSU +9
79
DL
Rylan Kennedy
12 tkl · 5 sacks · 7.5 TFL
0.64 TFL per gameBackfield Wrecker
78
LB
Harvey Dyson III
14 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.5 sacks
0.71 sacks + hurries per gameQuarterback Hunter
LB
FSU +1
79
LB
Chris Jones
37 tkl · 4 TFL · 1.5 sacks
0.58 sacks + hurries per gameQuarterback Hunter
71
CB
Jackson Vick
21 tkl · 1 INT · 3 PD
DB
FSU +2
73
DB
Nehemiah Chandler
6 tkl · 1 INT · 1 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.