The Playoff Picture

2026 season · after week 6 · 20,000 simulated seasons

Where the season is most likely headed, based on every game played so far. Each week we play out the rest of the season 20,000 times with our ratings, then pick and seed the field the way the committee has since 2014. This is our projection, not the committee's selection; the official bracket appears here on selection day (Dec 6). New to the 12-team format? How it works ↓

Projected bracket

In our weekly projections each team shows its chance to win that game and the favorite advances. Seeds 1-4 skip the first round, first-round games are at the higher seed's stadium, and the bracket is fixed (no re-seeding). Hover a team to see how it got in. Earlier weeks stay here so you can see how the picture changed.

Projection after week 6 (Oct 12): our simulation of where the season is headed. Not the committee's selection.

First round · Dec 18-19

Quarterfinals

Semifinals

Championship · Jan 25

Champion

8Texas Tech · home41%

9Texas59%

No. 1 ND waits (bye)

5Indiana · home89%

12James Madison11%

No. 4 ALA waits (bye)

7UCLA · home45%

10Utah55%

No. 2 UGA waits (bye)

6Ohio State · home82%

11Houston18%

No. 3 MIA waits (bye)

1Notre Dame74%

9Texas26%

4Alabama67%

5Indiana33%

2Georgia71%

10Utah29%

3Miami52%

6Ohio State48%

1Notre Dame59%

4Alabama41%

2Georgia51%

3Miami49%

1Notre Dame59%

2Georgia41%

Projected champion

Notre Dame

No. 1 seed

Chance to reach each round of this bracket

Team	Quarters	Semis	Final	Title
1Notre Dame	bye	78%	50%	31%
2Georgia	bye	75%	40%	19%
4Alabama	bye	70%	33%	18%
3Miami	bye	57%	32%	15%
6Ohio State	82%	39%	21%	9%
5Indiana	89%	30%	9%	3%
9Texas	59%	16%	6%	2%
10Utah	55%	16%	5%	1%
8Texas Tech	41%	6%	2%	<1%
7UCLA	45%	9%	2%	<1%
11Houston	18%	4%	1%	<1%
12James Madison	11%	1%	<1%	0%

Counts every path through this bracket. The Title column in the tables below also counts seasons where the field itself turns out different.

How each team gets in

Team	Way in	Playoff
1Notre Dame 6-0	Notre Dame in the top 12	98%
2Georgia 6-0	SEC champion	90%
3Miami 5-0	ACC champion	93%
4Alabama 5-1	At-large	75%
5Indiana 6-0	At-large	76%
6Ohio State 5-1	Big Ten champion	68%
7UCLA 5-0	At-large	66%
8Texas Tech 5-0	At-large	62%
9Texas 4-1	At-large	61%
10Utah 5-0	Big 12 champion	58%
11Houston 5-1	At-large	45%
12James Madison 6-0	Top team outside the power leagues	40%

Team	Quarters	Semis	Final	Title
1Notre Dame	bye	78%	47%	29%
2Georgia	bye	82%	49%	25%
4Alabama	bye	69%	35%	20%
6Ohio State	74%	43%	22%	10%
3Texas	bye	46%	20%	8%
5Indiana	89%	31%	11%	5%
8Oregon	88%	21%	7%	2%
11Utah	26%	10%	4%	1%
7UCLA	55%	10%	3%	<1%
10BYU	45%	8%	2%	<1%
12James Madison	11%	1%	<1%	<1%
9Miami	12%	1%	<1%	0%

Team	Way in	Playoff
1Notre Dame 5-0	Notre Dame in the top 12	85%
2Georgia 5-0	SEC champion	74%
3Texas 4-0	At-large	74%
4Alabama 5-0	At-large	71%
5Indiana 5-0	At-large	67%
6Ohio State 4-1	Big Ten champion	64%
7UCLA 4-0	At-large	42%
8Oregon 3-1	At-large	41%
9Miami 5-0	ACC champion	41%
10BYU 4-0	At-large	37%
11Utah 4-0	Big 12 champion	36%
12James Madison 5-0	Top team outside the power leagues	35%

Team	Quarters	Semis	Final	Title
1Notre Dame	bye	80%	54%	34%
3Georgia	bye	71%	40%	20%
2Miami	bye	58%	30%	14%
5Ohio State	92%	53%	23%	11%
7Alabama	81%	39%	19%	8%
4Texas	bye	46%	17%	7%
8Indiana	67%	15%	5%	2%
6Utah	56%	16%	6%	2%
11Oregon	44%	13%	4%	1%
9Texas Tech	33%	5%	1%	<1%
10UCLA	19%	4%	1%	<1%
12James Madison	8%	1%	<1%	<1%

Team	Way in	Playoff
1Notre Dame 4-0	Notre Dame in the top 12	97%
2Miami 4-0	ACC champion	86%
3Georgia 4-0	SEC champion	77%
4Texas 4-0	At-large	77%
5Ohio State 3-1	Big Ten champion	60%
6Utah 4-0	Big 12 champion	60%
7Alabama 4-0	At-large	54%
8Indiana 4-0	At-large	50%
9Texas Tech 4-0	At-large	50%
10UCLA 4-0	At-large	44%
11Oregon 3-1	At-large	44%
12James Madison 4-0	Top team outside the power leagues	39%

Team	Quarters	Semis	Final	Title
1Notre Dame	bye	66%	39%	24%
3Georgia	bye	71%	45%	23%
2Miami	bye	72%	35%	16%
5Ohio State	95%	56%	28%	16%
4Texas	bye	43%	18%	8%
9Alabama	59%	23%	11%	6%
6Indiana	68%	22%	10%	3%
8Utah	41%	10%	3%	1%
10Penn State	49%	15%	5%	1%
7Texas Tech	51%	13%	3%	1%
11BYU	32%	7%	2%	1%
12James Madison	5%	1%	<1%	0%

Team	Way in	Playoff
1Notre Dame 3-0	Notre Dame in the top 12	92%
2Miami 3-0	ACC champion	78%
3Georgia 3-0	SEC champion	67%
4Texas 3-0	At-large	63%
5Ohio State 2-1	Big Ten champion	60%
6Indiana 3-0	At-large	47%
7Texas Tech 3-0	At-large	45%
8Utah 3-0	Big 12 champion	47%
9Alabama 3-0	At-large	47%
10Penn State 3-0	At-large	42%
11BYU 3-0	At-large	41%
12James Madison 3-0	Top team outside the power leagues	24%

Team	Quarters	Semis	Final	Title
1Notre Dame	bye	68%	43%	27%
2Miami	bye	67%	36%	18%
4Ohio State	bye	65%	30%	16%
3Georgia	bye	57%	31%	15%
9Alabama	62%	24%	12%	6%
5Indiana	93%	34%	12%	5%
11Texas A&M	48%	21%	10%	4%
6Texas	52%	21%	10%	4%
10LSU	58%	22%	10%	4%
7Texas Tech	42%	11%	3%	1%
8Utah	38%	8%	3%	1%
12South Florida	7%	<1%	<1%	0%

Team	Way in	Playoff
1Notre Dame 2-0	Notre Dame in the top 12	92%
2Miami 2-0	ACC champion	80%
3Georgia 2-0	SEC champion	58%
4Ohio State 1-1	Big Ten champion	56%
5Indiana 2-0	At-large	51%
6Texas 2-0	At-large	53%
7Texas Tech 2-0	Big 12 champion	44%
8Utah 2-0	At-large	41%
9Alabama 2-0	At-large	43%
10LSU 2-0	At-large	38%
11Texas A&M 2-0	At-large	35%
12South Florida 2-0	Top team outside the power leagues	18%

Team	Quarters	Semis	Final	Title
1Notre Dame	bye	71%	48%	28%
3Ohio State	bye	63%	35%	20%
2Miami	bye	57%	30%	16%
4Oregon	bye	54%	21%	8%
11Texas A&M	62%	27%	13%	7%
5Indiana	93%	45%	17%	6%
7Georgia	57%	25%	11%	5%
9Texas	56%	19%	10%	4%
10Alabama	43%	18%	8%	4%
8Penn State	44%	10%	4%	1%
6Texas Tech	38%	10%	3%	1%
12Memphis	7%	1%	<1%	0%

Team	Way in	Playoff
1Notre Dame 1-0	Notre Dame in the top 12	88%
2Miami 1-0	ACC champion	77%
3Ohio State 1-0	Big Ten champion	66%
4Oregon 1-0	At-large	55%
5Indiana 1-0	At-large	47%
6Texas Tech 1-0	Big 12 champion	49%
7Georgia 1-0	SEC champion	48%
8Penn State 1-0	At-large	42%
9Texas 1-0	At-large	40%
10Alabama 1-0	At-large	37%
11Texas A&M 1-0	At-large	37%
12Memphis 2-0	Top team outside the power leagues	11%

Team	Quarters	Semis	Final	Title
2Ohio State	bye	72%	43%	27%
1Notre Dame	bye	62%	38%	20%
3Oregon	bye	56%	27%	15%
4Miami	bye	59%	27%	12%
6Georgia	68%	32%	15%	8%
5Texas Tech	94%	40%	16%	6%
8Texas A&M	62%	25%	13%	5%
7Indiana	74%	23%	10%	4%
9Texas	38%	13%	6%	2%
11Alabama	32%	12%	4%	2%
10Penn State	26%	4%	1%	<1%
12South Florida	6%	<1%	<1%	0%

Team	Way in	Playoff
1Notre Dame 0-0	Notre Dame in the top 12	83%
2Ohio State 0-0	Big Ten champion	69%
3Oregon 0-0	At-large	68%
4Miami 0-0	ACC champion	65%
5Texas Tech 0-0	Big 12 champion	59%
6Georgia 0-0	SEC champion	57%
7Indiana 0-0	At-large	49%
8Texas A&M 0-0	At-large	39%
9Texas 0-0	At-large	38%
10Penn State 0-0	At-large	33%
11Alabama 0-0	At-large	32%
12South Florida 0-0	Top team outside the power leagues	13%

First four out

BYU 5-0

Win out and they're in

44%

Boise State 5-1

Needs help

25%

LSU 4-2

Win out and they're in

21%

Nebraska 5-1

Win out and they're in

21%

Surprise contenders

Long shots before the season, real contenders now · playoff chance, preseason → now

UCLA 5-07% →66%

Alabama 5-132% →75%

James Madison 6-06% →40%

Utah 5-026% →58%

Houston 5-117% →45%

Slipping away

Expected contenders whose chances have faded · playoff chance, preseason → now

Oregon 3-268% →20%

Texas A&M 3-339% →<1%

Penn State 3-333% →<1%

Clemson 3-225% →1%

Washington 3-322% →<1%

Strong position

75-99%: in unless something goes wrong.

Team	Playoff	Bye	Title	Path	Next game
Notre Dame 6-0 FBS Independents	98%	71%	27%	Controls its destiny Wins out (51% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: >99%. Wk 7at BYU79% Wk 9vs Navy99% Wk 10vs Miami67% Wk 11vs Boston College99% Wk 12vs SMU96% Wk 13at Syracuse97%	at BYU · wins 79%
Miami 5-0 ACC	93%	53%	15%	Controls its destiny Wins out (23% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: >99%. Wk 7vs Florida State93% Wk 8vs Pittsburgh93% Wk 9at North Carolina92% Wk 10at Notre Dame33% Wk 11vs Duke95% Wk 12vs Virginia Tech93% Wk 13vs Boston College99%	vs FSU · wins 93%
Georgia 6-0 SEC	90%	54%	15%	Controls its destiny Wins out (24% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: >99%. Wk 7vs Auburn92% Wk 9vs Florida84% Wk 10at Ole Miss75% Wk 11vs Missouri86% Wk 12at South Carolina83% Wk 13vs Georgia Tech98%	vs AUB · wins 92%
Indiana 6-0 Big Ten	76%	32%	4%	Controls its destiny Wins out (12% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: >99%. Wk 7vs Ohio State43% Wk 8at Michigan74% Wk 9vs Minnesota93% Wk 11vs USC74% Wk 12at Washington84% Wk 13vs Purdue89%	vs OSU · wins 43%
Alabama 5-1 SEC	75%	30%	13%	Controls its destiny Wins out (20% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 97%. Wk 7at Tennessee72% Wk 8vs Texas A&M88% Wk 10at LSU58% Wk 11at Vanderbilt94% Wk 12vs Chattanooga>99% Wk 13vs Auburn90%	at TENN · wins 72%

On the bubble

25-75%: the next few weeks decide it.

Team	Playoff	Bye	Title	Path	Next game
Ohio State 5-1 Big Ten	68%	34%	10%	Controls its destiny Wins out (17% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: >99%. Wk 7at Indiana57% Wk 9at USC74% Wk 10vs Oregon75% Wk 11vs Northwestern88% Wk 12at Nebraska68% Wk 13vs Michigan91%	at IU · wins 57%
UCLA 5-0 Big Ten	66%	18%	1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (7% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 99%. Wk 7vs Wisconsin70% Wk 8vs Michigan State85% Wk 9vs Nevada97% Wk 10at Minnesota80% Wk 11vs Illinois82% Wk 12at Michigan65% Wk 13vs USC64%	vs WIS · wins 70%
Texas Tech 5-0 Big 12	62%	21%	1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (10% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 99%. Wk 7vs Arizona State85% Wk 8at Cincinnati82% Wk 9vs Arizona69% Wk 10vs West Virginia89% Wk 11at Oklahoma State68% Wk 12at Baylor61% Wk 13vs TCU82%	vs ASU · wins 85%
Texas 4-1 SEC	61%	19%	4%	Controls its destiny Wins out (7% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 99%. Wk 7vs Florida76% Wk 8vs Ole Miss72% Wk 9vs Mississippi State80% Wk 10at Missouri60% Wk 11at LSU45% Wk 12vs Arkansas94% Wk 13at Texas A&M68%	vs FLA · wins 76%
Utah 5-0 Big 12	58%	22%	3%	Controls its destiny Wins out (10% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 99%. Wk 7at Colorado83% Wk 8vs Houston60% Wk 9at Cincinnati86% Wk 10vs BYU60% Wk 11at Arizona63% Wk 12at TCU77% Wk 13vs West Virginia92%	at COLO · wins 83%
Houston 5-1 Big 12	45%	8%	1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (11% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 74%. Wk 7vs Oklahoma State81% Wk 8at Utah40% Wk 10vs Cincinnati91% Wk 11at Colorado82% Wk 12at West Virginia84% Wk 13vs Baylor76%	vs OKST · wins 81%
BYU 5-0 Big 12	44%	13%	1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (3% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: >99%. Wk 7vs Notre Dame21% Wk 8at UCF74% Wk 9vs Arizona State86% Wk 10at Utah40% Wk 11vs Baylor75% Wk 12at Kansas65% Wk 13vs Cincinnati91%	vs ND · wins 21%
James Madison 6-0 Sun Belt	40%	<1%	<1%	Needs help Wins out (26% chance): in 87% of the time. One more loss: 45%. Wk 7vs Georgia State77% Wk 8at App State82% Wk 9vs Troy83% Wk 10at Southern Miss89% Wk 11at UConn67% Wk 13vs Coastal Carolina89%	vs GAST · wins 77%
Boise State 5-1 Pac-12	25%	0%	<1%	Needs help Wins out (25% chance): in 66% of the time. One more loss: 24%. Wk 8at Washington State84% Wk 9vs Texas State79% Wk 10at Colorado State87% Wk 11vs Oregon State61% Wk 12vs San Diego State93%	at WSU · wins 84%

Long shots

2-25%: alive, but it takes a run (and usually some help).

Team	Playoff	Bye	Title	Path	Next game
LSU 4-2 SEC	21%	3%	2%	Controls its destiny Wins out (7% chance): in 97% of the time. One more loss: 48%. Wk 7vs Mississippi State80% Wk 8at Auburn71% Wk 10vs Alabama42% Wk 11vs Texas55% Wk 12at Tennessee58% Wk 13at Arkansas88%	vs MSST · wins 80%
Nebraska 5-1 Big Ten	21%	2%	1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (4% chance): in 99% of the time. One more loss: 70%. Wk 7at Oregon38% Wk 9vs Washington85% Wk 10at Illinois71% Wk 11at Rutgers91% Wk 12vs Ohio State32% Wk 13at Iowa52%	at ORE · wins 38%
Iowa 5-1 Big Ten	20%	2%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (6% chance): in 98% of the time. One more loss: 55%. Wk 8at Minnesota73% Wk 9vs Wisconsin62% Wk 10at Northwestern49% Wk 11vs Purdue77% Wk 12at Illinois63% Wk 13vs Nebraska48%	at MINN · wins 73%
Oregon 3-2 Big Ten	20%	3%	1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (5% chance): in 98% of the time. One more loss: 51%. Wk 7vs Nebraska62% Wk 8at Illinois75% Wk 9vs Northwestern75% Wk 10at Ohio State25% Wk 11vs Michigan80% Wk 12at Michigan State78% Wk 13vs Washington87%	vs NEB · wins 62%
USC 6-1 Big Ten	19%	2%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (1% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 93%. Wk 8at Wisconsin50% Wk 9vs Ohio State26% Wk 11at Indiana26% Wk 12vs Maryland87% Wk 13at UCLA36%	at WIS · wins 50%
Ole Miss 4-1 SEC	19%	3%	1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (1% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 92%. Wk 7vs Missouri60% Wk 8at Texas28% Wk 9vs Auburn71% Wk 10vs Georgia25% Wk 11at Oklahoma50% Wk 12vs Wofford>99% Wk 13vs Mississippi State68%	vs MIZ · wins 60%
Missouri 5-1 SEC	17%	2%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (1% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 91%. Wk 7at Ole Miss41% Wk 9at Arkansas77% Wk 10vs Texas40% Wk 11at Georgia14% Wk 12vs Kentucky71% Wk 13vs Oklahoma61%	at MISS · wins 41%
Tennessee 5-1 SEC	16%	2%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (2% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 76%. Wk 7vs Alabama28% Wk 8at South Carolina53% Wk 10vs Kentucky72% Wk 11at Texas A&M53% Wk 12vs LSU42% Wk 13at Vanderbilt77%	vs ALA · wins 28%
Wake Forest 5-1 ACC	16%	1%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (4% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 31%. Wk 7at California80% Wk 9vs Virginia79% Wk 10vs Merrimack>99% Wk 11at SMU56% Wk 12at Georgia Tech72% Wk 13vs Duke73%	at CAL · wins 80%
Arizona 5-1 Big 12	12%	1%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (3% chance): in 99% of the time. One more loss: 47%. Wk 8vs Iowa State70% Wk 9at Texas Tech31% Wk 10vs TCU72% Wk 11vs Utah37% Wk 12at Kansas State60% Wk 13vs Arizona State76%	vs ISU · wins 70%
Wisconsin 4-1 Big Ten	11%	1%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (1% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 67%. Wk 7at UCLA30% Wk 8vs USC50% Wk 9at Iowa38% Wk 10vs Rutgers91% Wk 11at Maryland72% Wk 12at Purdue60% Wk 13vs Minnesota80%	at UCLA · wins 30%
Kentucky 5-1 SEC	11%	1%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (1% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 85%. Wk 7at Oklahoma33% Wk 8vs Vanderbilt75% Wk 10at Tennessee28% Wk 11vs Florida45% Wk 12at Missouri29% Wk 13vs Louisville56%	at OU · wins 33%
New Mexico 4-1 Mountain West	10%	0%	0%	Needs help Wins out (20% chance): in 39% of the time. One more loss: 7%. Wk 7at Hawai'i89% Wk 8vs North Dakota State70% Wk 9at San José State85% Wk 10at Nevada78% Wk 11vs UNLV81% Wk 12at Wyoming88% Wk 13vs Air Force72%	at HAW · wins 89%
Oklahoma 3-2 SEC	9%	1%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (2% chance): in 98% of the time. One more loss: 60%. Wk 7vs Kentucky67% Wk 8at Mississippi State48% Wk 9vs South Carolina62% Wk 10at Florida42% Wk 11vs Ole Miss50% Wk 12vs Texas A&M61% Wk 13at Missouri39%	vs UK · wins 67%
Mississippi State 4-1 SEC	8%	1%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (<1% chance): in 99% of the time. One more loss: 81%. Wk 7at LSU20% Wk 8vs Oklahoma52% Wk 9at Texas20% Wk 10vs Vanderbilt80% Wk 11vs Auburn59% Wk 12vs Tennessee Tech>99% Wk 13at Ole Miss32%	at LSU · wins 20%
Northwestern 4-1 Big Ten	7%	<1%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (1% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 59%. Wk 7at Michigan State62% Wk 8vs Rutgers91% Wk 9at Oregon25% Wk 10vs Iowa51% Wk 11at Ohio State12% Wk 12at Minnesota67% Wk 13vs Illinois70%	at MSU · wins 62%
Liberty 5-1 Conference USA	7%	0%	0%	Needs help Wins out (36% chance): in 17% of the time. One more loss: 2%. Wk 8at Kennesaw State80% Wk 9vs Florida International80% Wk 10at New Mexico State82% Wk 11vs Middle Tennessee95% Wk 12vs Western Kentucky92% Wk 13at Missouri State89%	at KENN · wins 80%
Baylor 4-1 Big 12	5%	1%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (<1% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 83%. Wk 7vs TCU68% Wk 8at Kansas46% Wk 9at UCF56% Wk 10vs Iowa State66% Wk 11at BYU25% Wk 12vs Texas Tech39% Wk 13at Houston24%	vs TCU · wins 68%
Memphis 5-1 American Athletic	5%	0%	0%	Needs help Wins out (11% chance): in 33% of the time. One more loss: 5%. Wk 7at Tulane72% Wk 8vs East Carolina76% Wk 9vs Army75% Wk 11at South Florida54% Wk 12at Navy62% Wk 13vs Temple86%	at TULN · wins 72%
Oklahoma State 4-1 Big 12	5%	<1%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (<1% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 67%. Wk 7at Houston19% Wk 8vs Colorado71% Wk 9at Iowa State47% Wk 10at Kansas State47% Wk 11vs Texas Tech32% Wk 12at Arizona State52% Wk 13vs Kansas53%	at HOU · wins 19%
Pittsburgh 5-1 ACC	5%	<1%	<1%	Controls its destiny Wins out (<1% chance): in 98% of the time. One more loss: 36%. Wk 7at Boston College74% Wk 8at Miami7% Wk 9vs Georgia Tech76% Wk 11vs Florida State57% Wk 12at Louisville37% Wk 13at California72%	at BC · wins 74%
Florida 4-2 SEC	4%	<1%	<1%	Needs help Wins out (1% chance): in 94% of the time. One more loss: 29%. Wk 7at Texas24% Wk 9vs Georgia16% Wk 10vs Oklahoma58% Wk 11at Kentucky55% Wk 12vs Vanderbilt84% Wk 13at Florida State59%	at TEX · wins 24%
SMU 4-1 ACC	3%	<1%	0%	Controls its destiny Wins out (<1% chance): in >99% of the time. One more loss: 71%. Wk 7vs Virginia68% Wk 8vs California80% Wk 9at Syracuse61% Wk 10vs Virginia Tech55% Wk 11vs Wake Forest44% Wk 12at Notre Dame4% Wk 13at Stanford84%	vs UVA · wins 68%
North Dakota State 5-1 Mountain West	3%	0%	0%	Needs help Wins out (8% chance): in 26% of the time. One more loss: 3%. Wk 7vs Nevada80% Wk 8at New Mexico30% Wk 9vs UTEP96% Wk 11at Hawai'i82% Wk 12vs Northern Illinois95% Wk 13at San José State76%	vs NEV · wins 80%
UTSA 5-1 American Athletic	3%	0%	0%	Needs help Wins out (4% chance): in 38% of the time. One more loss: 7%. Wk 7vs Navy64% Wk 8at Tulane62% Wk 10at Florida Atlantic56% Wk 11vs North Texas45% Wk 12at UAB73% Wk 13vs Tulsa74%	vs NAVY · wins 64%
Oregon State 4-2 Pac-12	2%	0%	<1%	Needs help Wins out (10% chance): in 20% of the time. One more loss: 2%. Wk 7vs Washington State89% Wk 9at Fresno State65% Wk 10vs Texas State77% Wk 11at Boise State39% Wk 12vs Utah State85%	vs WSU · wins 89%
Louisville 3-3 ACC	2%	0%	<1%	Needs help Wins out (7% chance): in 19% of the time. One more loss: 3%. Wk 7at Syracuse69% Wk 9vs Stanford94% Wk 10at Georgia Tech69% Wk 11at North Carolina60% Wk 12vs Pittsburgh63% Wk 13at Kentucky44%	at SYR · wins 69%
Air Force 4-1 Mountain West	2%	0%	<1%	Needs help Wins out (4% chance): in 36% of the time. One more loss: 5%. Wk 7vs UNLV68% Wk 8at Wyoming77% Wk 9vs UConn70% Wk 10at Army50% Wk 11vs San José State83% Wk 12vs UTEP94% Wk 13at New Mexico28%	vs UNLV · wins 68%

Games that matter most · week 7

Notre DameatBYU

BYU wins 21%

BYU: 35% if ND wins · 79% if BYU wins

Notre Dame: >99% if ND wins · 91% if BYU wins

Oklahoma StateatHouston

Houston wins 81%

Houston: 15% if OKST wins · 52% if HOU wins

Oklahoma State: 15% if OKST wins · 2% if HOU wins

AlabamaatTennessee

Tennessee wins 28%

Alabama: 85% if ALA wins · 51% if TENN wins

Tennessee: 8% if ALA wins · 39% if TENN wins

Arizona StateatTexas Tech

Texas Tech wins 85%

Texas Tech: 31% if ASU wins · 68% if TTU wins

Alabama: 79% if ASU wins · 75% if TTU wins

Ohio StateatIndiana

Indiana wins 43%

Ohio State: 84% if OSU wins · 48% if IU wins

Indiana: 63% if OSU wins · 92% if IU wins

NebraskaatOregon

Oregon wins 62%

Nebraska: 40% if NEB wins · 9% if ORE wins

Oregon: 4% if NEB wins · 29% if ORE wins

Ranked by how much the result moves everyone's playoff chances combined.

Conference races

ACC · champion gets a bid

Miami84%

Wake Forest7%

SMU3%

Big Ten · champion gets a bid

Ohio State43%

Indiana28%

UCLA13%

Big 12 · champion gets a bid

Utah32%

Texas Tech25%

BYU24%

SEC · champion gets a bid

Georgia47%

Alabama34%

Texas8%

American Athletic

Memphis34%

North Texas30%

UTSA15%

Conference USA

Liberty70%

Florida International13%

Jacksonville State11%

Mid-American

Western Michigan34%

Ohio28%

Toledo17%

Mountain West

New Mexico50%

North Dakota State24%

Air Force15%

Pac-12

Boise State56%

Sun Belt

Chance to win the conference title game. Outside the four power leagues only the best-ranked team gets a bid, champion or not.

How the 12-team playoff works

The 2026-27 rules in six steps. What changed from the first two years: byes used to go to the four best conference champions; now they go to the four best teams.

1Who gets in
Twelve teams. Five spots are automatic: the champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC, plus the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt (it doesn't have to be a champion). Notre Dame is also automatic if it's ranked in the top 12. Every other spot goes to the next-highest teams in the committee's final ranking.
2How seeds work
The four highest-ranked teams get seeds 1-4 and skip the first round, champions or not. Everyone else is seeded 5-12 in ranking order. A team that gets in automatically from outside the top 12 still gets in, with one of the lowest seeds.
3First round · Dec 18-19
On campus, at the higher seed's stadium: 5 vs 12, 6 vs 11, 7 vs 10, 8 vs 9.
4Quarterfinals · Dec 30-Jan 1
Bowl games (Fiesta, Cotton, Rose, Peach this season): 1 vs 8/9, 2 vs 7/10, 3 vs 6/11, 4 vs 5/12. The No. 1 seed picks its bowl first. No re-seeding: the bracket stays as drawn.
5Semifinals and title
Semifinals in the Orange (Jan 14) and Sugar (Jan 15) bowls; the national championship is Jan 25 in Las Vegas.
6The committee
Thirteen members rank the teams weekly from Nov 3; the final ranking (Dec 6) sets the field. They weigh results, strength of schedule, conference titles, head-to-head and common opponents.

How we project it. We play out every remaining game thousands of times. A team's chance in each game comes from our ratings, plus the chance that a team is better or worse than it has looked so far. Each simulated season gets its own conference title games, a committee ranking modeled on every final ranking since 2014, a field picked under the rules above, and a bracket played to the end. Lock means a team makes the field in at least 99% of simulated seasons. We replayed 2016-2025 from every week of each season, and no team at that level ever missed. Controls its destiny means winning every remaining game, including the title game, gets it in. How our ratings work →

The Playoff Picture

Projected bracket

Strong positionStrong position

On the bubbleOn the bubble

Long shotsLong shots

How the 12-team playoff works

Strong position

On the bubble

Long shots