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Games / Week 9 / Baylor @ UCF
73
Away
Baylor
Bears
#38 · 4-1
Week 9 · ESPN · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Orlando, FL · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Baylor 2 – 1 UCF
3 since 2013 · BAY 2 straight
Last 2025 Baylor 30–3
69
UCF
Knights
#52 · 3-3
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Pick a winner · locks at kickoff

Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.

Model vs market

Baylor is favored: 56% to win, by about 2 points.

No betting line yet.

Our model 56%
Win chanceExpected margin
Our model56%Baylor by 2.2
Betting market——
Difference——

The Matchup

BaylorvsUCF
68
QB
Nate Bennett
568 yds · 5 TD · 2 INT
QB
BAY +10
58
QB
Keyone Jenkins
806 yds · 8 TD · 3 INT
69
RB
Dawson Pendergrass
317 yds · 1 TD · 5 rec
RB
UCF +1
70
RB
Duke Watson
483 yds · 3 TD · 6 rec
77
WR
Gavin Freeman
42 rec · 479 yds · 2 TD
11.4 targets per gameTarget Magnet
WR
BAY +8
69
WR
Josh Derry
28 rec · 304 yds · 2 TD
64
TE
Tony Livingston
6 rec · 42 yds · 1 TD
TE
UCF +2
66
TE
Caden Piening
12 rec · 126 yds · 2 TD
74
OL
Kaden Sieracki
5 starts
OL
BAY +8
66
OL
Brady Wayburn
6 starts
78
DE
Garrick Ponder
13 tkl · 2 sacks · 4 TFL
DL
UCF +1
79
EDGE
Isaiah Nixon
22 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4 TFL
74
LB
Travion Barnes
32 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1 sacks
LB
UCF +2
76
LB
Jahleel Culbreath
30 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.5 sacks
75
CB
LeVar Thornton Jr.
11 tkl · 0 INT · 3 PD
DB
UCF +6
81
DB
Demari Henderson
30 tkl · 2 INT · 3 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.