Coaches / Head coach / Dave Aranda
Form · last two seasons
69
performing to its level
Rating69recent
Peak69best 5 yrs
Career68whole career
confidence
Dave Aranda
Head Coach · Baylor
Headline rating: as head coach. Every role he has been rated in is below.
Chemistry
66
continuity at Baylor · early
Seasons here7
Programs2
Stints2
Career path
Head-coaching stints since 1936; assistant roles since 2016
Chemistry
vs every head coach since 2016 · 62 = typical
Tenure here
Seasons as head coach at his current school
Staff continuity
Seasons he and his offensive coordinator have worked together
Player retention
Players kept vs. the league norm for similar rosters (fewer transfers out)
Followers
Players and staff who followed him from his previous job
QB & coordinator
How long his quarterbacks have played for the same coordinator
Roster continuity
Share of starters returning from one season to the next under him
Dashed gold ring on the radar = average (62). Chemistry scale: 62 is typical, 20-50 is a warning sign, under 10 is a collapse.
As head coach
Rating69Form69≈ as usualPeak69Career68
2020–2026 · 7 seasonsRecord 36-37National titles 0Great seasons 0 (top ~7% of all teams that year)Career: too early to rank all-time (8+ seasons as a head coach)
- Rating 69: his whole career, recent seasons weighted most, measured as how far his teams stood above their era, crediting him with half of what each program already was when he arrived (about the share that, historically, follows a coach to his next job), fading as the program becomes his own.
- Peak 69: best five-season stretch, 2020–2022 at Baylor (20-16), taking over a good program.
Over expectation · 2016 on64Results against what his rosters' talent predicted (program lift, evaluation, recruiting, staff building, game management).
Rating = who he is: his whole head-coaching career (since 1936), weighted toward recent years — how far his teams stood above their contemporaries, how much he lifted programs, his great seasons and titles. Form = the last two seasons. Career = the all-time ranking number.
Program lift64
Evaluation68
Results73
Recruiting53
Staff building64
Game management55
| Season | Team | Record | Season rank | vs contemporaries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Baylor | 0-0 | #28 | +0.89 SD |
| 2025 | Baylor | 5-7 | #67 | +0.05 SD |
| 2024 | Baylor | 8-5 | #26 | +1.03 SD |
| 2023 | Baylor | 3-9 | #97 | -0.63 SD |
| 2022 | Baylor | 6-7 | #28 | +0.87 SD |
| 2021 | Baylor | 12-2 | #16 | +1.09 SD |
| 2020 | Baylor | 2-7 | #36 | +0.13 SD |
Season rank = his team among all major-college teams that year; vs contemporaries = how far above the average team (in standard deviations).
As defensive coordinator
Rating82Peak82
His defense against its preseason projection (value over expectation) and the unit's opponent-adjusted quality.
| Season | Team | Unit (EPA/play) | Over expectation | Season score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | LSU | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.79 |
| 2018 | LSU | 0.14 | 0.08 | 1.46 |
| 2017 | LSU | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| 2016 | LSU | 0.14 | — | 0.70 |
Season score: 0 = an average season in this role; positive = better.