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Teams / Big 12 / Baylor
Index · this season
73
at its 5-year level
Career68since 1936
Peak872014
Last 571seasons
#38 nationally · 4-1 (2-0 conf)
Résumé #34
Schedule so far #72
Margin ±5 pts (tightens with games)
Why 73? →

Baylor Bears

Big 12 · Waco, TX · McLane Stadium · Head coach Dave Aranda
Rival
TCU · also Texas
Established rivalry
50-60-5 all time (115 meetings since 1903)
TCU leads
Last: lost 42-36 (2025)
Wants it back
program traits are earned from history
No recognized national titles since 1936. Counted: AP poll champion, a coaches-poll champion, or the BCS / playoff title-game winner; a split year counts for both.0national titles
Heisman Trophy winners1Heisman
Seasons finishing in the AP top 10 since 19363AP top-10
Consensus All-Americans since 193613All-Americans
NFL draft picks since 1967105NFL picks
Winning percentage since 193649.2%win pct
History since 1936 · football since 1903. Every season →
Chemistry
Chem 57: typical57
Chem 53: typical
53Foundation
Chem 63: typical
63Gel
gel counts 40% so far
▼ Below its norm -8Trending down
early · #73 of 138
HC year7
Ret. starters23%
QB yrs w/ OC1
View chemistry →
Team chemistryearly · #73 of 138 FBS teams
Chem 53: typicalFoundation53+Chem 63: typicalGel63=Chem 57: typicalChem57Gel counts 40% so far (it grows as games are played, up to half)
Foundationwhat the program has built · moves over seasons
Foundation53Staff stability — Coach and coordinator tenure, staff who came along, assistant turnoverStaff stability63Roster continuity — Returning starters and the lineup's experienceRoster continuity58Unit cohesion — QB & coordinator, QB & receivers, offensive line, defense: how long each unit has played togetherUnit cohesion50Administration — Athletic director continuity and coach-AD alignmentAdministration30Investment — Commitment to football: its share of the department's spending and whether that is growing, plus spending and recruitingInvestment60Fan base — How passionate and loyal the fan base is: how often it sells out, and whether it sells out games that don't matterFan base74
ContinuityClimate
Continuity · who has played and coached togetherlive

Who has played and coached together, and for how long, ranked against every FBS team at the same point of the season.

▸Staff stability
Coach and coordinator tenure, staff who came along, assistant turnover
63
Staff cohesion66
HC year 7 · OC year 3 · DC year 1
Assistant turnover60
44% of on-field staff new this season (FBS average about 45%)
▸Roster continuity
Returning starters and the lineup's experience
58
Returning core47
23% of last season's starters · FBS median 32%
Experience68
13 career starts per starter · FBS median 12
▸Unit cohesion
QB & coordinator, QB & receivers, offensive line, defense: how long each unit has played together
50
QB & coordinator55
1st season together · same as 76% of FBS teams
QB & receivers47
2.8 games started together on average · FBS median 3.9
Line cohesion55
4.5 games per linemen pair · FBS median 5.2
Defensive cohesion40
3.5 games per defensive pair · FBS median 4.5
Climate · around the programlive

The administration, money and fans around the team: athletic director continuity, willingness to invest, and crowds.

▸Administration
Athletic director continuity and coach-AD alignment
30
AD continuity30
Doug McNamee · year 1 (Wikipedia, CC BY-SA)
▸Investment
Commitment to football: its share of the department's spending and whether that is growing, plus spending and recruiting
60
Football's share58
28% of department spending goes to football
Investment trend53
+18% over three years
Football investment69
$41.1M on football (2024-25 federal report)
Recruiting spend74
$2.56M men's recruiting
Department resources67
$144M athletic department revenue
▸Fan base
How passionate and loyal the fan base is: how often it sells out, and whether it sells out games that don't matter
74
Sellouts75
sellout crowds (95%+ of capacity) at 29 of 46 home games (last 8 seasons)
Sells out anyway74
sellout crowds at 23 of 38 games that didn't matter: cupcakes, or a team expected to lose or having a losing season

Finances: U.S. Department of Education athletics disclosures, as reported by each school. Athletic directors: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA). Attendance: reported crowds vs stadium capacity.

Gelhow it is working right now · moves week to week
Gel63Playing above its parts — Results vs what its preseason projection expected, game by gamePlaying above its parts84Settled & sharp — A settled starting lineup and clean execution (penalties, turnovers) vs its own normalSettled & sharp41Alignment — Coaches and players telling the same story; the staff on one pageAlignmentsoonResilience — Confidence, and how the team sounds after adversityResiliencesoonFan & media mood — Expectations met or missed this season (preseason rank vs now), stronger for fan bases that react hard; fan and media sentiment joins laterFan & media mood80Coach security — The hard-facts hot seat, inverted: results vs expectation, recent seasons vs the program's norm, stakes, a new ADCoach security70
InternalOn-field fitExternal
Internal · how the program talkscoming

How the team talks in press conferences and interviews, each program against its own normal, so a naturally terse coach isn't read as upset. Being built program by program, Big Ten first.

▸Alignment
Coaches and players telling the same story; the staff on one page
soon
Coming: measured from press conferences and interviews.
▸Resilience
Confidence, and how the team sounds after adversity
soon
Coming: measured from press conferences and interviews.

Readings are team-level; we don't publish psychological readings of individual players.

On-field fit · how it is playing togetherlive

How the team is playing together this season: beating or missing its preseason expectation, a settled lineup, clean execution.

▸Playing above its parts
Results vs what its preseason projection expected, game by game
84
This season84
+7.4 points a game vs its preseason projection (4 games)
▸Settled & sharp
A settled starting lineup and clean execution (penalties, turnovers) vs its own normal
41
This season41
77% of starters kept game to game
External · pressure from outsidelive

Pressure from outside the building: the hard-facts hot seat now; this season's fan and media mood as it is measured.

▸Fan & media mood
Expectations met or missed this season (preseason rank vs now), stronger for fan bases that react hard; fan and media sentiment joins later
80
This season80
outside the AP poll: projected #46 preseason -> #38 in our Index now · rival week vs TCU (+4) · results 4-1 (+10, recent games count more)
▸Coach security
The hard-facts hot seat, inverted: results vs expectation, recent seasons vs the program's norm, stakes, a new AD
70
This season70
Dave Aranda, year 7 · 80% wins so far · +7.4 pts a game vs preseason expectation · last two seasons -4% vs the program's norm · new athletic director

Dashed gold ring = typical (62). 20-50 is the warning zone; under 10 is a collapse. Spokes with no data yet are dashed and left out until they fill in. Chem blends the two halves, then places the blend among this season's teams.

Trend · Foundationeach program year runs Feb 1 to the title game
'1673'1760'1869'1972'2036'2162'2270'2367'2469'2574'262016 wk 1 vs Northwestern State: 77 · W2016 wk 2 vs SMU: 84 · W2016 wk 3 vs Rice: 72 · W2016 wk 4 vs Oklahoma State: 73 · W2016 wk 5 vs Iowa State: 76 · W2016 wk 7 vs Kansas: 75 · W2016 wk 9 vs Texas: 77 · L2016 wk 10 vs TCU: 77 · L2016 wk 11 vs Oklahoma: 78 · L2016 wk 12 vs Kansas State: 75 · L2016 wk 13 vs Texas Tech: 68 · L2016 wk 14 vs West Virginia: 68 · L2016 wk 1 vs Boise State: 73 · W2017 wk 2 vs UTSA: 59 · L2017 wk 3 vs Duke: 58 · L2017 wk 4 vs Oklahoma: 59 · L2017 wk 5 vs Kansas State: 58 · L2017 wk 7 vs Oklahoma State: 60 · L2017 wk 8 vs West Virginia: 60 · L2017 wk 9 vs Texas: 61 · L2017 wk 10 vs Kansas: 60 · W2017 wk 11 vs Texas Tech: 58 · L2017 wk 12 vs Iowa State: 60 · L2017 wk 13 vs TCU: 60 · L2018 wk 2 vs UTSA: 69 · W2018 wk 3 vs Duke: 71 · L2018 wk 4 vs Kansas: 71 · W2018 wk 5 vs Oklahoma: 72 · L2018 wk 6 vs Kansas State: 70 · W2018 wk 7 vs Texas: 68 · L2018 wk 9 vs West Virginia: 70 · L2018 wk 10 vs Oklahoma State: 72 · W2018 wk 11 vs Iowa State: 65 · L2018 wk 12 vs TCU: 70 · L2018 wk 13 vs Texas Tech: 71 · W2018 wk 1 vs Vanderbilt: 69 · W2019 wk 2 vs UTSA: 76 · W2019 wk 4 vs Rice: 76 · W2019 wk 5 vs Iowa State: 77 · W2019 wk 6 vs Kansas State: 77 · W2019 wk 7 vs Texas Tech: 77 · W2019 wk 8 vs Oklahoma State: 76 · W2019 wk 10 vs West Virginia: 76 · W2019 wk 11 vs TCU: 75 · W2019 wk 12 vs Oklahoma: 74 · L2019 wk 13 vs Texas: 75 · W2019 wk 14 vs Kansas: 75 · W2019 wk 15 vs Oklahoma: 74 · L2019 wk 1 vs Georgia: 72 · L2020 wk 5 vs West Virginia: 33 · L2020 wk 8 vs Texas: 34 · L2020 wk 9 vs TCU: 33 · L2020 wk 10 vs Iowa State: 36 · L2020 wk 11 vs Texas Tech: 35 · L2020 wk 13 vs Kansas State: 34 · W2020 wk 14 vs Oklahoma: 35 · L2020 wk 15 vs Oklahoma State: 36 · L2021 wk 2 vs Texas Southern: 64 · W2021 wk 3 vs Kansas: 64 · W2021 wk 4 vs Iowa State: 66 · W2021 wk 5 vs Oklahoma State: 66 · L2021 wk 6 vs West Virginia: 66 · W2021 wk 7 vs BYU: 64 · W2021 wk 9 vs Texas: 67 · W2021 wk 10 vs TCU: 67 · L2021 wk 11 vs Oklahoma: 66 · W2021 wk 12 vs Kansas State: 67 · W2021 wk 13 vs Texas Tech: 63 · W2021 wk 14 vs Oklahoma State: 60 · W2021 wk 1 vs Ole Miss: 62 · W2022 wk 2 vs BYU: 71 · L2022 wk 3 vs Texas State: 72 · W2022 wk 4 vs Iowa State: 71 · W2022 wk 5 vs Oklahoma State: 70 · L2022 wk 7 vs West Virginia: 73 · L2022 wk 8 vs Kansas: 73 · W2022 wk 9 vs Texas Tech: 75 · W2022 wk 10 vs Oklahoma: 73 · W2022 wk 11 vs Kansas State: 72 · L2022 wk 12 vs TCU: 73 · L2022 wk 13 vs Texas: 72 · L2022 wk 1 vs Air Force: 70 · L2023 wk 2 vs Utah: 67 · L2023 wk 3 vs Long Island University: 59 · W2023 wk 4 vs Texas: 61 · L2023 wk 5 vs UCF: 63 · W2023 wk 6 vs Texas Tech: 67 · L2023 wk 8 vs Cincinnati: 68 · W2023 wk 9 vs Iowa State: 67 · L2023 wk 10 vs Houston: 67 · L2023 wk 11 vs Kansas State: 67 · L2023 wk 12 vs TCU: 68 · L2023 wk 13 vs West Virginia: 67 · L2024 wk 2 vs Utah: 69 · L2024 wk 3 vs Air Force: 71 · W2024 wk 4 vs Colorado: 69 · L2024 wk 5 vs BYU: 69 · L2024 wk 6 vs Iowa State: 67 · L2024 wk 8 vs Texas Tech: 67 · W2024 wk 9 vs Oklahoma State: 68 · W2024 wk 10 vs TCU: 69 · W2024 wk 12 vs West Virginia: 69 · W2024 wk 13 vs Houston: 70 · W2024 wk 14 vs Kansas: 70 · W2024 wk 1 vs LSU: 69 · L2025 wk 2 vs SMU: 77 · W2025 wk 3 vs Samford: 77 · W2025 wk 4 vs Arizona State: 76 · L2025 wk 5 vs Oklahoma State: 75 · W2025 wk 6 vs Kansas State: 76 · W2025 wk 8 vs TCU: 76 · L2025 wk 9 vs Cincinnati: 77 · L2025 wk 10 vs UCF: 76 · W2025 wk 12 vs Utah: 76 · L2025 wk 13 vs Arizona: 77 · L2025 wk 14 vs Houston: 74 · L2026 wk 2 vs Prairie View A&M: 54 · W2026 wk 3 vs Louisiana Tech: 44 · W2026 wk 4 vs Colorado: 44 · W2026 wk 5 vs Arizona State: 52 · W2026 wk 7 vs TCU: 54 · next gametypical 62

Every game since 2016, one continuous line; thin rules separate seasons and the chip is where each season finished. Navy dot = win, red = loss. Big drops usually mean a new staff, a new quarterback or a rebuilt line.

Trend · Gelthis season, after each game
typical 62wk 1 · on-field 63 · fan mood 59621wk 2 vs Prairie View A&M · W · on-field 54 · fan mood 62572wk 3 vs Louisiana Tech · W · on-field 42 · fan mood 66513wk 4 vs Colorado · W · on-field 36 · fan mood 73504wk 5 vs Arizona State · W · on-field 49 · fan mood 78605

How the team is working right now, rebuilt after each game from only the games so far: on-field fit (results vs preseason expectation, lineup settling, execution) and that week's fan & media mood. Coach security is part of today's Gel number but isn't rebuilt week by week yet. Navy frame = win, red = loss.

Continuity facts
Head coach
Year 7
at this school
Offensive coordinator
Year 3
at this school
Defensive coordinator
Year 1
new this season
HC & OC together
3 seasons
working together
QB with his OC
1 seasons
same play-caller
QB & receivers
2.8 games
started together, average
Offensive line pairs
4.5 games
started together, average
Returning starters
23%
from last season
Starter experience
13 starts
career average
Internal facts
Pressers read
soon
this season, coaches and players
Coach tone
soon
vs his own normal
"We" vs "I"
soon
share of team language
Owning mistakes
soon
vs pointing outward
Same story
soon
coaches and players agree
After losses
soon
how fast tone recovers
Leaders named
soon
players teammates point to
Newcomers
soon
transfers talked about as part of it
Openness
soon
forthcoming vs guarded
Measured from press conferences and interviews, program by program.
Climate facts
Athletic director
Doug McNamee
year 1
Football spending
$41.1M
2024-25 federal report
Spending trend
+18%
over three years
Department revenue
$144M
all sports
Recruiting spend
$2.56M
men's teams
Home crowds
—
of capacity
Staff turnover
44%
on-field staff new this season
Fan mood
soon
fans and local media
Coach & AD
soon
on the same page
Finances: U.S. Department of Education athletics disclosures. Athletic directors: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA).
Offense · games started togetherlatest lineup · 11 starters
Lagway
Pendergrass
Freeman
Brown
Porter
Klopfenstein
Sieracki
Kibble
Sieracki
Moore
Hale
QBDJ Lagway33332333333
RBDawson Pendergrass35552555445
WRGavin Freeman35552555445
WRLouis Brown IV35552555445
WRJadon Porter22223232322
TEMatthew Klopfenstein35552665445
OLKaden Sieracki355536275745
OLNate Kibble35552555445
OLKoltin Sieracki34443474734
OLLogan Moore34442444344
OLAsher Hale35552555445

Each square: games the two players have started together at this school (darker = more). Gray diagonal: the player's own starts here.

Defense · games started togetherlatest lineup · 11 starters
Davis
Wheeler
Mack
Mitchell
Reed
Barnes
McCalister
Turner
Thornton
Jordan
Cobbs
DLRyan Davis44114443444
DLHosea Wheeler44114443444
DLJordan Mack11111111111
DLTraevon Mitchell11122222222
LBKyland Reed4412145541355
LBTravion Barnes44125754755
DBColby McCalister44125554555
DBDevin Turner33124444444
DBLeVar Thornton Jr.4412137541655
DBDevon Jordan44125554555
DBDaniel Cobbs44125554555

Each square: games the two players have started together at this school (darker = more). Gray diagonal: the player's own starts here.

Chemistry is Scorebook's own rating of how well a program fits together, on the same all-time 0-99 scale as our other ratings (compared with every FBS team since 2016; 62 is typical, 20-50 signals something is wrong, and single digits are reserved for true collapses; each season is compared with its own era). This early version blends continuity (who has played and coached together, and for how long; it counts most) with the climate around the program; how the program talks joins as it is measured. Within continuity, quarterback-centered pairings count most because they held up when we tested them against results. How our ratings work →