Heated rivalry
Week 13 · Kenan Stadium
Chapel Hill, NC · Forecast TBA
All-time series
NC State 41 – 60 North Carolina
106 since 1902 · 5 ties · NCSU 5 straight
Last 2025 NC State 42–19
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
North Carolina is favored: 68% to win, by about 7 points.
Betting markets like NC State instead (52%, by 1.5).
Our model 68%Market 52%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | North Carolina by 7.2 |
| Betting market | 52% | NC State by 1.5 |
| Difference▲ | 16 pts | 8.7 pts |
Gaps this large have landed on our side 59% of the time (183 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
NC StatevsNorth Carolina
75
TE
24 rec · 286 yds · 1 TD
TE
UNC +479
TE
22 rec · 262 yds · 4 TD
70
DE
8 tkl · 1 sacks · 1 TFL
DL
UNC +1383
DL
29 tkl · 6.5 sacks · 9.5 TFL
78
LB
14 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.5 sacks
LB
NCSU +870
LB
48 tkl · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened NC State -1.5, now -1.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.