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Teams / ACC / North Carolina
Index · this season
68
at its 5-year level▲ Up 8 this season
Career69since 1936
Peak881948
Last 568seasons
#57 nationally · 3-2 (1-1 conf)
Résumé #31 · record ahead of its play
Schedule so far #15
Margin ±5 pts (tightens with games)
Why 68? →

North Carolina Tar Heels

ACC · Chapel Hill, NC · Kenan Stadium · Head coach Bill Belichick
Rival
NC State · also Duke
Heated rivalry
60-41-5 all time (106 meetings since 1902)
North Carolina leads
Last: lost 42-19 (2025) · NC State has won 5 straight
Wants it back
program traits are earned from history
No recognized national titles since 1936. Counted: AP poll champion, a coaches-poll champion, or the BCS / playoff title-game winner; a split year counts for both.0national titles
Heisman Trophy winners0Heisman
Seasons finishing in the AP top 10 since 19367AP top-10
Consensus All-Americans since 193613All-Americans
NFL draft picks since 1967149NFL picks
Winning percentage since 193653.3%win pct
History since 1936 · football since 1893. Every season →
Chemistry
Chem 63: typical63
Chem 59: typical
59Foundation
Chem 70: strong
70Gel
gel counts 40% so far
at its usual level
early · #44 of 138
HC year2
Ret. starters27%
QB yrs w/ OC1
View chemistry →
Team chemistryearly · #44 of 138 FBS teams
Chem 59: typicalFoundation59+Chem 70: strongGel70=Chem 63: typicalChem63Gel counts 40% so far (it grows as games are played, up to half)
Foundationwhat the program has built · moves over seasons
Foundation59Staff stability — Coach and coordinator tenure, staff who came along, assistant turnoverStaff stability64Roster continuity — Returning starters and the lineup's experienceRoster continuity54Unit cohesion — QB & coordinator, QB & receivers, offensive line, defense: how long each unit has played togetherUnit cohesion54Administration — Athletic director continuity and coach-AD alignmentAdministration30Investment — Commitment to football: its share of the department's spending and whether that is growing, plus spending and recruitingInvestment66Fan base — How passionate and loyal the fan base is: how often it sells out, and whether it sells out games that don't matterFan base78
ContinuityClimate
Continuity · who has played and coached togetherlive

Who has played and coached together, and for how long, ranked against every FBS team at the same point of the season.

▸Staff stability
Coach and coordinator tenure, staff who came along, assistant turnover
64
Staff cohesion47
HC year 2 · OC year 1 · DC year 2
Assistant turnover82
14% of on-field staff new this season (FBS average about 45%)
▸Roster continuity
Returning starters and the lineup's experience
54
Returning core53
27% of last season's starters · FBS median 32%
Experience54
10 career starts per starter · FBS median 12
▸Unit cohesion
QB & coordinator, QB & receivers, offensive line, defense: how long each unit has played together
54
QB & coordinator55
1st season together · same as 76% of FBS teams
QB & receivers64
4.0 games started together on average · FBS median 3.9
Line cohesion49
3.9 games per linemen pair · FBS median 5.2
Defensive cohesion43
3.6 games per defensive pair · FBS median 4.5
Climate · around the programlive

The administration, money and fans around the team: athletic director continuity, willingness to invest, and crowds.

▸Administration
Athletic director continuity and coach-AD alignment
30
AD continuity30
Steve Newmark · year 1 (Wikipedia, CC BY-SA)
▸Investment
Commitment to football: its share of the department's spending and whether that is growing, plus spending and recruiting
66
Football's share51
27% of department spending goes to football
Investment trend69
+43% over three years
Football investment74
$49.1M on football (2024-25 federal report)
Recruiting spend84
$3.23M men's recruiting
Department resources75
$181M athletic department revenue
▸Fan base
How passionate and loyal the fan base is: how often it sells out, and whether it sells out games that don't matter
78
Sellouts80
sellout crowds (95%+ of capacity) at 31 of 44 home games (last 8 seasons)
Sells out anyway77
sellout crowds at 24 of 36 games that didn't matter: cupcakes, or a team expected to lose or having a losing season

Finances: U.S. Department of Education athletics disclosures, as reported by each school. Athletic directors: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA). Attendance: reported crowds vs stadium capacity.

Gelhow it is working right now · moves week to week
Gel70Playing above its parts — Results vs what its preseason projection expected, game by gamePlaying above its parts90Settled & sharp — A settled starting lineup and clean execution (penalties, turnovers) vs its own normalSettled & sharp52Alignment — Coaches and players telling the same story; the staff on one pageAlignmentsoonResilience — Confidence, and how the team sounds after adversityResiliencesoonFan & media mood — Expectations met or missed this season (preseason rank vs now), stronger for fan bases that react hard; fan and media sentiment joins laterFan & media mood89Coach security — The hard-facts hot seat, inverted: results vs expectation, recent seasons vs the program's norm, stakes, a new ADCoach security67
InternalOn-field fitExternal
Internal · how the program talkscoming

How the team talks in press conferences and interviews, each program against its own normal, so a naturally terse coach isn't read as upset. Being built program by program, Big Ten first.

▸Alignment
Coaches and players telling the same story; the staff on one page
soon
Coming: measured from press conferences and interviews.
▸Resilience
Confidence, and how the team sounds after adversity
soon
Coming: measured from press conferences and interviews.

Readings are team-level; we don't publish psychological readings of individual players.

On-field fit · how it is playing togetherlive

How the team is playing together this season: beating or missing its preseason expectation, a settled lineup, clean execution.

▸Playing above its parts
Results vs what its preseason projection expected, game by game
90
This season90
+10.2 points a game vs its preseason projection (4 games)
▸Settled & sharp
A settled starting lineup and clean execution (penalties, turnovers) vs its own normal
52
This season52
74% of starters kept game to game
External · pressure from outsidelive

Pressure from outside the building: the hard-facts hot seat now; this season's fan and media mood as it is measured.

▸Fan & media mood
Expectations met or missed this season (preseason rank vs now), stronger for fan bases that react hard; fan and media sentiment joins later
89
This season89
outside the AP poll: projected #83 preseason -> #57 in our Index now · rival week vs Duke (+3) · results 3-2 (+7, recent games count more)
▸Coach security
The hard-facts hot seat, inverted: results vs expectation, recent seasons vs the program's norm, stakes, a new AD
67
This season67
Bill Belichick, year 2 · 60% wins so far · +10.2 pts a game vs preseason expectation · last two seasons -20% vs the program's norm · impatient fan base · new athletic director

Dashed gold ring = typical (62). 20-50 is the warning zone; under 10 is a collapse. Spokes with no data yet are dashed and left out until they fill in. Chem blends the two halves, then places the blend among this season's teams.

Trend · Foundationeach program year runs Feb 1 to the title game
'1662'1766'1866'1960'2078'2178'2263'2373'2472'2527'262016 wk 1 vs Georgia: 68 · L2016 wk 2 vs Illinois: 79 · W2016 wk 3 vs James Madison: 58 · W2016 wk 4 vs Pittsburgh: 67 · W2016 wk 5 vs Florida State: 63 · W2016 wk 6 vs Virginia Tech: 66 · L2016 wk 7 vs Miami: 63 · W2016 wk 8 vs Virginia: 65 · W2016 wk 10 vs Georgia Tech: 60 · W2016 wk 11 vs Duke: 67 · L2016 wk 12 vs The Citadel: 68 · W2016 wk 13 vs NC State: 71 · L2016 wk 1 vs Stanford: 62 · L2017 wk 2 vs Louisville: 67 · L2017 wk 3 vs Old Dominion: 62 · W2017 wk 4 vs Duke: 64 · L2017 wk 5 vs Georgia Tech: 66 · L2017 wk 6 vs Notre Dame: 67 · L2017 wk 7 vs Virginia: 66 · L2017 wk 8 vs Virginia Tech: 64 · L2017 wk 9 vs Miami: 67 · L2017 wk 11 vs Pittsburgh: 67 · W2017 wk 12 vs Western Carolina: 65 · W2017 wk 13 vs NC State: 66 · L2018 wk 2 vs East Carolina: 64 · L2018 wk 4 vs Pittsburgh: 59 · W2018 wk 5 vs Miami: 61 · L2018 wk 7 vs Virginia Tech: 63 · L2018 wk 8 vs Syracuse: 61 · L2018 wk 9 vs Virginia: 63 · L2018 wk 10 vs Georgia Tech: 64 · L2018 wk 11 vs Duke: 65 · L2018 wk 12 vs Western Carolina: 65 · W2018 wk 13 vs NC State: 66 · L2019 wk 2 vs Miami: 49 · W2019 wk 3 vs Wake Forest: 51 · L2019 wk 4 vs App State: 55 · L2019 wk 5 vs Clemson: 54 · L2019 wk 6 vs Georgia Tech: 57 · W2019 wk 8 vs Virginia Tech: 57 · L2019 wk 9 vs Duke: 58 · W2019 wk 10 vs Virginia: 59 · L2019 wk 12 vs Pittsburgh: 59 · L2019 wk 13 vs Mercer: 59 · W2019 wk 14 vs NC State: 57 · W2019 wk 1 vs Temple: 60 · W2020 wk 5 vs Boston College: 83 · W2020 wk 6 vs Virginia Tech: 84 · W2020 wk 7 vs Florida State: 78 · L2020 wk 8 vs NC State: 77 · W2020 wk 9 vs Virginia: 84 · L2020 wk 10 vs Duke: 77 · W2020 wk 11 vs Wake Forest: 84 · W2020 wk 13 vs Notre Dame: 76 · L2020 wk 14 vs Western Carolina: 79 · W2020 wk 15 vs Miami: 79 · W2020 wk 1 vs Texas A&M: 78 · L2021 wk 2 vs Georgia State: 78 · W2021 wk 3 vs Virginia: 78 · W2021 wk 4 vs Georgia Tech: 76 · L2021 wk 5 vs Duke: 80 · W2021 wk 6 vs Florida State: 80 · L2021 wk 7 vs Miami: 79 · W2021 wk 9 vs Notre Dame: 79 · L2021 wk 10 vs Wake Forest: 79 · W2021 wk 11 vs Pittsburgh: 78 · L2021 wk 12 vs Wofford: 79 · W2021 wk 13 vs NC State: 71 · L2021 wk 1 vs South Carolina: 78 · L2022 wk 1 vs App State: 68 · W2022 wk 2 vs Georgia State: 68 · W2022 wk 4 vs Notre Dame: 69 · L2022 wk 5 vs Virginia Tech: 70 · W2022 wk 6 vs Miami: 70 · W2022 wk 7 vs Duke: 69 · W2022 wk 9 vs Pittsburgh: 70 · W2022 wk 10 vs Virginia: 72 · W2022 wk 11 vs Wake Forest: 72 · W2022 wk 12 vs Georgia Tech: 71 · L2022 wk 13 vs NC State: 72 · L2022 wk 14 vs Clemson: 68 · L2022 wk 1 vs Oregon: 63 · L2023 wk 2 vs App State: 76 · W2023 wk 3 vs Minnesota: 75 · W2023 wk 4 vs Pittsburgh: 74 · W2023 wk 6 vs Syracuse: 75 · W2023 wk 7 vs Miami: 75 · W2023 wk 8 vs Virginia: 76 · L2023 wk 9 vs Georgia Tech: 76 · L2023 wk 10 vs Campbell: 76 · W2023 wk 11 vs Duke: 77 · W2023 wk 12 vs Clemson: 76 · L2023 wk 13 vs NC State: 76 · L2023 wk 1 vs West Virginia: 73 · L2024 wk 2 vs Charlotte: 70 · W2024 wk 3 vs North Carolina Central: 67 · W2024 wk 4 vs James Madison: 71 · L2024 wk 5 vs Duke: 64 · L2024 wk 6 vs Pittsburgh: 69 · L2024 wk 7 vs Georgia Tech: 70 · L2024 wk 9 vs Virginia: 72 · W2024 wk 10 vs Florida State: 71 · W2024 wk 12 vs Wake Forest: 73 · W2024 wk 13 vs Boston College: 72 · L2024 wk 14 vs NC State: 71 · L2024 wk 1 vs UConn: 72 · L2025 wk 2 vs Charlotte: 25 · W2025 wk 3 vs Richmond: 23 · W2025 wk 4 vs UCF: 25 · L2025 wk 6 vs Clemson: 26 · L2025 wk 8 vs California: 22 · L2025 wk 9 vs Virginia: 25 · L2025 wk 10 vs Syracuse: 26 · W2025 wk 11 vs Stanford: 27 · W2025 wk 12 vs Wake Forest: 25 · L2025 wk 13 vs Duke: 26 · L2025 wk 14 vs NC State: 27 · L2026 wk 2 vs East Tennessee State: 59 · W2026 wk 3 vs Clemson: 56 · L2026 wk 5 vs Notre Dame: 59 · L2026 wk 6 vs Pittsburgh: 59 · W2026 wk 7 vs Duke: 60 · next gametypical 62

Every game since 2016, one continuous line; thin rules separate seasons and the chip is where each season finished. Navy dot = win, red = loss. Big drops usually mean a new staff, a new quarterback or a rebuilt line.

Trend · Gelthis season, after each game
typical 62wk 1 · on-field 73 · fan mood 81761wk 2 vs East Tennessee State · W · on-field 55 · fan mood 79642wk 3 vs Clemson · L · on-field 50 · fan mood 72583wk 5 vs Notre Dame · L · on-field 53 · fan mood 76625wk 6 vs Pittsburgh · W · on-field 59 · fan mood 88706

How the team is working right now, rebuilt after each game from only the games so far: on-field fit (results vs preseason expectation, lineup settling, execution) and that week's fan & media mood. Coach security is part of today's Gel number but isn't rebuilt week by week yet. Navy frame = win, red = loss.

Continuity facts
Head coach
Year 2
at this school
Offensive coordinator
Year 1
new this season
Defensive coordinator
Year 2
at this school
HC & OC together
1 seasons
working together
QB with his OC
1 seasons
same play-caller
QB & receivers
4.0 games
started together, average
Offensive line pairs
3.9 games
started together, average
Returning starters
27%
from last season
Starter experience
10 starts
career average
Internal facts
Pressers read
soon
this season, coaches and players
Coach tone
soon
vs his own normal
"We" vs "I"
soon
share of team language
Owning mistakes
soon
vs pointing outward
Same story
soon
coaches and players agree
After losses
soon
how fast tone recovers
Leaders named
soon
players teammates point to
Newcomers
soon
transfers talked about as part of it
Openness
soon
forthcoming vs guarded
Measured from press conferences and interviews, program by program.
Climate facts
Athletic director
Steve Newmark
year 1
Football spending
$49.1M
2024-25 federal report
Spending trend
+43%
over three years
Department revenue
$181M
all sports
Recruiting spend
$3.23M
men's teams
Home crowds
—
of capacity
Staff turnover
14%
on-field staff new this season
Fan mood
soon
fans and local media
Coach & AD
soon
on the same page
Finances: U.S. Department of Education athletics disclosures. Athletic directors: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA).
Offense · games started togetherlatest lineup · 11 starters
Edwards
Hall
Kekahuna
Shipp
Sadler
Thurman
Kelly
Banfield
McRoy
Threatt
Alvarez
QBBilly Edwards Jr.55353555552
RBBenjamin Hall56363556552
WRTrech Kekahuna33331333331
WRJordan Shipp5631835610552
WRC.J. Sadler33133333332
TEJelani Thurman55353555552
OLChristo Kelly55363566552
OLAidan Banfield5631035619552
OLJacqawn McRoy55353555552
OLAndrew Threatt55353555552
OLCristian Alvarez22122222222

Each square: games the two players have started together at this school (darker = more). Gray diagonal: the player's own starts here.

Defense · games started togetherlatest lineup · 11 starters
Jaoude
Jackson
Lewis
McDonald
Seelmann
Thomas
Cost
Miller
Waters
Patterson
Smith
DLMelkart Abou Jaoude1413233193393
DLLeroy Jackson131524311034104
DLXavier Lewis22332113333
LBDerek McDonald34353134555
LBPeyton Seelmann33233123333
LBCalvin Thomas11111111111
DBKaleb Cost9101321242373
DBTre Miller33343124444
DBPeyton Waters34353134555
DBJaiden Patterson9103531745115
DBGreg Smith34353134555

Each square: games the two players have started together at this school (darker = more). Gray diagonal: the player's own starts here.

Chemistry is Scorebook's own rating of how well a program fits together, on the same all-time 0-99 scale as our other ratings (compared with every FBS team since 2016; 62 is typical, 20-50 signals something is wrong, and single digits are reserved for true collapses; each season is compared with its own era). This early version blends continuity (who has played and coached together, and for how long; it counts most) with the climate around the program; how the program talks joins as it is measured. Within continuity, quarterback-centered pairings count most because they held up when we tested them against results. How our ratings work →