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68
Away
Tar Heels
#57 · 3-2
Heated rivalry
Week 12 · Scott Stadium
Charlottesville, VA · Forecast TBA
All-time series
North Carolina 65 – 51 Virginia
120 since 1902 · 4 ties
Last 2025 Virginia 17–16
68
Cavaliers
#54 · 4-2
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Pick a winner · locks at kickoff

Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.

Model vs market

Virginia is favored: 54% to win, by about 1 points.

No betting line yet.

Our model 54%
Win chanceExpected margin
Our model54%Virginia by 1.4
Betting market——
Difference——

The Matchup

North CarolinavsVirginia
67
QB
1,068 yds · 8 TD · 5 INT
QB
UVA +1
68
QB
1,080 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
63
RB
143 yds · 5 TD · 1 rec
RB
UVA +9
72
RB
337 yds · 3 TD · 7 rec
74
WR
26 rec · 366 yds · 0 TD
WR
UVA +3
77
WR
13 rec · 196 yds · 5 TD
TE
UNC +21
58
TE
6 rec · 47 yds · 1 TD
63
OL
OL
UVA +15
DL
UVA +2
85
DE
28 tkl · 2 sacks · 3.5 TFL
70
LB
48 tkl · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
LB
UVA +6
76
LB
23 tkl · 3 TFL · 0 sacks
79
DB
23 tkl · 0 INT · 4 PD
DB
UNC +1
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.