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Index · this season
68
▲ Above its 5-year level +4▼ Down 4 this season
Career62since 1936
Peak861990
Last 564seasons
#54 nationally · 4-2 (2-1 conf)
Résumé #61
Schedule so far #82
Margin ±5 pts (tightens with games)
Why 68? →

Virginia Cavaliers

ACC · Charlottesville, VA · Scott Stadium · Head coach Tony Elliott
Rival
Heated rivalry
34-62-5 all time (101 meetings since 1902)
Virginia Tech leads
Last: won 27-7 (2025)
Holds it
program traits are earned from history
No recognized national titles since 1936. Counted: AP poll champion, a coaches-poll champion, or the BCS / playoff title-game winner; a split year counts for both.0national titles
Heisman Trophy winners0Heisman
Seasons finishing in the AP top 10 since 19360AP top-10
Consensus All-Americans since 193610All-Americans
NFL draft picks since 1967102NFL picks
Winning percentage since 193646.6%win pct
History since 1936 · football since 1889. Every season →
Chemistry
Chem 59: typical59
Chem 58: typical
58Foundation
Chem 60: typical
60Gel
gel counts 45% so far
▲ Above its norm +9
early · #63 of 138
HC year5
Ret. starters36%
QB yrs w/ OC1
View chemistry →
Team chemistryearly · #63 of 138 FBS teams
Chem 58: typicalFoundation58+Chem 60: typicalGel60=Chem 59: typicalChem59Gel counts 45% so far (it grows as games are played, up to half)
Foundationwhat the program has built · moves over seasons
Foundation58Staff stability — Coach and coordinator tenure, staff who came along, assistant turnoverStaff stability66Roster continuity — Returning starters and the lineup's experienceRoster continuity76Unit cohesion — QB & coordinator, QB & receivers, offensive line, defense: how long each unit has played togetherUnit cohesion50Administration — Athletic director continuity and coach-AD alignmentAdministration74Investment — Commitment to football: its share of the department's spending and whether that is growing, plus spending and recruitingInvestment42Fan base — How passionate and loyal the fan base is: how often it sells out, and whether it sells out games that don't matterFan base40
ContinuityClimate
Continuity · who has played and coached togetherlive

Who has played and coached together, and for how long, ranked against every FBS team at the same point of the season.

▸Staff stability
Coach and coordinator tenure, staff who came along, assistant turnover
66
Staff cohesion83
HC year 5 · OC year 5 · DC year 5
Assistant turnover48
60% of on-field staff new this season (FBS average about 45%)
▸Roster continuity
Returning starters and the lineup's experience
76
Returning core65
36% of last season's starters · FBS median 32%
Experience87
17 career starts per starter · FBS median 12
▸Unit cohesion
QB & coordinator, QB & receivers, offensive line, defense: how long each unit has played together
50
QB & coordinator55
1st season together · same as 76% of FBS teams
QB & receivers37
2.0 games started together on average · FBS median 3.9
Line cohesion86
9.0 games per linemen pair · FBS median 5.2
Defensive cohesion27
3.1 games per defensive pair · FBS median 4.5
Climate · around the programlive

The administration, money and fans around the team: athletic director continuity, willingness to invest, and crowds.

▸Administration
Athletic director continuity and coach-AD alignment
74
AD continuity74
Carla Williams · year 9 (Wikipedia, CC BY-SA)
▸Investment
Commitment to football: its share of the department's spending and whether that is growing, plus spending and recruiting
42
Football's share23
22% of department spending goes to football
Investment trend38
+10% over three years
Football investment64
$33.6M on football (2024-25 federal report)
Recruiting spend71
$2.29M men's recruiting
Department resources69
$151M athletic department revenue
▸Fan base
How passionate and loyal the fan base is: how often it sells out, and whether it sells out games that don't matter
40
Sellouts47
sellout crowds (95%+ of capacity) at 1 of 44 home games (last 8 seasons)
Sells out anyway34
sellout crowds at 0 of 32 games that didn't matter: cupcakes, or a team expected to lose or having a losing season

Finances: U.S. Department of Education athletics disclosures, as reported by each school. Athletic directors: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA). Attendance: reported crowds vs stadium capacity.

Gelhow it is working right now · moves week to week
Gel60Playing above its parts — Results vs what its preseason projection expected, game by gamePlaying above its parts64Settled & sharp — A settled starting lineup and clean execution (penalties, turnovers) vs its own normalSettled & sharp63Alignment — Coaches and players telling the same story; the staff on one pageAlignmentsoonResilience — Confidence, and how the team sounds after adversityResiliencesoonFan & media mood — Expectations met or missed this season (preseason rank vs now), stronger for fan bases that react hard; fan and media sentiment joins laterFan & media mood52Coach security — The hard-facts hot seat, inverted: results vs expectation, recent seasons vs the program's norm, stakes, a new ADCoach security67
InternalOn-field fitExternal
Internal · how the program talkscoming

How the team talks in press conferences and interviews, each program against its own normal, so a naturally terse coach isn't read as upset. Being built program by program, Big Ten first.

▸Alignment
Coaches and players telling the same story; the staff on one page
soon
Coming: measured from press conferences and interviews.
▸Resilience
Confidence, and how the team sounds after adversity
soon
Coming: measured from press conferences and interviews.

Readings are team-level; we don't publish psychological readings of individual players.

On-field fit · how it is playing togetherlive

How the team is playing together this season: beating or missing its preseason expectation, a settled lineup, clean execution.

▸Playing above its parts
Results vs what its preseason projection expected, game by game
64
This season64
+0.7 points a game vs its preseason projection (5 games)
▸Settled & sharp
A settled starting lineup and clean execution (penalties, turnovers) vs its own normal
63
This season63
78% of starters kept game to game
External · pressure from outsidelive

Pressure from outside the building: the hard-facts hot seat now; this season's fan and media mood as it is measured.

▸Fan & media mood
Expectations met or missed this season (preseason rank vs now), stronger for fan bases that react hard; fan and media sentiment joins later
52
This season52
outside the AP poll: projected #45 preseason -> #54 in our Index now · results 4-2 (+2, recent games count more)
▸Coach security
The hard-facts hot seat, inverted: results vs expectation, recent seasons vs the program's norm, stakes, a new AD
67
This season67
Tony Elliott, year 5 · 67% wins so far · +0.7 pts a game vs preseason expectation · last two seasons +19% vs the program's norm

Dashed gold ring = typical (62). 20-50 is the warning zone; under 10 is a collapse. Spokes with no data yet are dashed and left out until they fill in. Chem blends the two halves, then places the blend among this season's teams.

Trend · Foundationeach program year runs Feb 1 to the title game
'1631'1758'1848'1954'2053'2163'2220'2346'2464'2560'262016 wk 1 vs Richmond: 33 · L2016 wk 2 vs Oregon: 33 · L2016 wk 3 vs UConn: 28 · L2016 wk 4 vs Central Michigan: 25 · W2016 wk 5 vs Duke: 32 · W2016 wk 7 vs Pittsburgh: 28 · L2016 wk 8 vs North Carolina: 39 · L2016 wk 9 vs Louisville: 43 · L2016 wk 10 vs Wake Forest: 45 · L2016 wk 11 vs Miami: 43 · L2016 wk 12 vs Georgia Tech: 41 · L2016 wk 13 vs Virginia Tech: 31 · L2017 wk 3 vs UConn: 57 · W2017 wk 4 vs Boise State: 57 · W2017 wk 6 vs Duke: 58 · W2017 wk 7 vs North Carolina: 57 · W2017 wk 8 vs Boston College: 57 · L2017 wk 9 vs Pittsburgh: 59 · L2017 wk 10 vs Georgia Tech: 57 · W2017 wk 11 vs Louisville: 57 · L2017 wk 12 vs Miami: 60 · L2017 wk 13 vs Virginia Tech: 60 · L2017 wk 1 vs Navy: 58 · L2018 wk 3 vs Ohio: 47 · W2018 wk 4 vs Louisville: 50 · W2018 wk 5 vs NC State: 50 · L2018 wk 7 vs Miami: 49 · W2018 wk 8 vs Duke: 47 · W2018 wk 9 vs North Carolina: 47 · W2018 wk 10 vs Pittsburgh: 48 · L2018 wk 11 vs Liberty: 49 · W2018 wk 12 vs Georgia Tech: 49 · L2018 wk 13 vs Virginia Tech: 50 · L2018 wk 1 vs South Carolina: 48 · W2019 wk 2 vs William & Mary: 61 · W2019 wk 3 vs Florida State: 60 · W2019 wk 4 vs Old Dominion: 59 · W2019 wk 5 vs Notre Dame: 57 · L2019 wk 7 vs Miami: 56 · L2019 wk 8 vs Duke: 55 · W2019 wk 9 vs Louisville: 58 · L2019 wk 10 vs North Carolina: 59 · W2019 wk 11 vs Georgia Tech: 55 · W2019 wk 13 vs Liberty: 58 · W2019 wk 14 vs Virginia Tech: 57 · W2019 wk 15 vs Clemson: 54 · L2019 wk 1 vs Florida: 54 · L2020 wk 5 vs Clemson: 61 · L2020 wk 6 vs NC State: 61 · L2020 wk 7 vs Wake Forest: 63 · L2020 wk 8 vs Miami: 60 · L2020 wk 9 vs North Carolina: 60 · W2020 wk 11 vs Louisville: 61 · W2020 wk 12 vs Abilene Christian: 57 · W2020 wk 14 vs Boston College: 57 · W2020 wk 15 vs Virginia Tech: 53 · L2021 wk 2 vs Illinois: 64 · W2021 wk 3 vs North Carolina: 64 · L2021 wk 4 vs Wake Forest: 63 · L2021 wk 5 vs Miami: 65 · W2021 wk 6 vs Louisville: 62 · W2021 wk 7 vs Duke: 63 · W2021 wk 8 vs Georgia Tech: 64 · W2021 wk 9 vs BYU: 64 · L2021 wk 11 vs Notre Dame: 62 · L2021 wk 12 vs Pittsburgh: 58 · L2021 wk 13 vs Virginia Tech: 63 · L2022 wk 2 vs Illinois: 3 · L2022 wk 3 vs Old Dominion: 20 · W2022 wk 4 vs Syracuse: 6 · L2022 wk 5 vs Duke: 21 · L2022 wk 6 vs Louisville: 19 · L2022 wk 8 vs Georgia Tech: 21 · W2022 wk 9 vs Miami: 7 · L2022 wk 10 vs North Carolina: 8 · L2022 wk 11 vs Pittsburgh: 20 · L2023 wk 2 vs James Madison: 51 · L2023 wk 3 vs Maryland: 50 · L2023 wk 4 vs NC State: 52 · L2023 wk 5 vs Boston College: 52 · L2023 wk 6 vs William & Mary: 49 · W2023 wk 8 vs North Carolina: 48 · W2023 wk 9 vs Miami: 50 · L2023 wk 10 vs Georgia Tech: 49 · L2023 wk 11 vs Louisville: 49 · L2023 wk 12 vs Duke: 50 · W2023 wk 13 vs Virginia Tech: 46 · L2024 wk 3 vs Maryland: 64 · L2024 wk 4 vs Coastal Carolina: 64 · W2024 wk 6 vs Boston College: 63 · W2024 wk 7 vs Louisville: 65 · L2024 wk 8 vs Clemson: 64 · L2024 wk 9 vs North Carolina: 64 · L2024 wk 11 vs Pittsburgh: 62 · W2024 wk 12 vs Notre Dame: 63 · L2024 wk 13 vs SMU: 63 · L2024 wk 14 vs Virginia Tech: 64 · L2025 wk 2 vs NC State: 61 · L2025 wk 3 vs William & Mary: 60 · W2025 wk 4 vs Stanford: 58 · W2025 wk 5 vs Florida State: 60 · W2025 wk 6 vs Louisville: 61 · W2025 wk 8 vs Washington State: 61 · W2025 wk 9 vs North Carolina: 62 · W2025 wk 10 vs California: 62 · W2025 wk 11 vs Wake Forest: 63 · L2025 wk 12 vs Duke: 63 · W2025 wk 14 vs Virginia Tech: 64 · W2025 wk 15 vs Duke: 59 · L2025 wk 1 vs Missouri: 60 · W2026 wk 2 vs Norfolk State: 61 · W2026 wk 3 vs West Virginia: 59 · L2026 wk 4 vs Delaware: 58 · W2026 wk 5 vs Florida State: 60 · L2026 wk 6 vs Syracuse: 61 · W2026 wk 7 vs SMU: 58 · next gametypical 62

Every game since 2016, one continuous line; thin rules separate seasons and the chip is where each season finished. Navy dot = win, red = loss. Big drops usually mean a new staff, a new quarterback or a rebuilt line.

Trend · Gelthis season, after each game
typical 62wk 1 · on-field 77 · fan mood 78781wk 2 vs Norfolk State · W · on-field 82 · fan mood 81822wk 3 vs West Virginia · L · on-field 64 · fan mood 66653wk 4 vs Delaware · W · on-field 61 · fan mood 76674wk 5 vs Florida State · L · on-field 68 · fan mood 53625wk 6 vs Syracuse · W · on-field 63 · fan mood 57616

How the team is working right now, rebuilt after each game from only the games so far: on-field fit (results vs preseason expectation, lineup settling, execution) and that week's fan & media mood. Coach security is part of today's Gel number but isn't rebuilt week by week yet. Navy frame = win, red = loss.

Continuity facts
Head coach
Year 5
at this school
Offensive coordinator
Year 5
at this school
Defensive coordinator
Year 5
at this school
HC & OC together
5 seasons
working together
QB with his OC
1 seasons
same play-caller
QB & receivers
2.0 games
started together, average
Offensive line pairs
9.0 games
started together, average
Returning starters
36%
from last season
Starter experience
17 starts
career average
Internal facts
Pressers read
soon
this season, coaches and players
Coach tone
soon
vs his own normal
"We" vs "I"
soon
share of team language
Owning mistakes
soon
vs pointing outward
Same story
soon
coaches and players agree
After losses
soon
how fast tone recovers
Leaders named
soon
players teammates point to
Newcomers
soon
transfers talked about as part of it
Openness
soon
forthcoming vs guarded
Measured from press conferences and interviews, program by program.
Climate facts
Athletic director
Carla Williams
year 9
Football spending
$33.6M
2024-25 federal report
Spending trend
+10%
over three years
Department revenue
$151M
all sports
Recruiting spend
$2.29M
men's teams
Home crowds
—
of capacity
Staff turnover
60%
on-field staff new this season
Fan mood
soon
fans and local media
Coach & AD
soon
on the same page
Finances: U.S. Department of Education athletics disclosures. Athletic directors: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA).
Offense · games started togetherlatest lineup · 11 starters
Pribula
Middlebrook
Flores
Courtney
Martin
Rogers
Metcalf
Josey
Mills
Boley
Reid
QBBeau Pribula55141255551
RBJekail Middlebrook55141255551
WRRico Flores Jr.11111111111
WRKameron Courtney44181268481
WRDa'Shawn Martin11111111111
TEJohn Rogers22121333231
OLDrake Metcalf55161318185181
OLNoah Josey55181318425351
OLMonroe Mills55141255551
OLMcKale Boley55181318355371
OLGrayson Reid11111111111

Each square: games the two players have started together at this school (darker = more). Gray diagonal: the player's own starts here.

Defense · games started togetherlatest lineup · 11 starters
Henry-Young
Camac
Fobbs-White
Britton
Robinson
Marcellus
Henderson
Hillman
Costner
Ross
Williams
DLDarrion Henry-Young44344443212
DLFisher Camac4174512654312
DLMatthew Fobbs-White34443443212
DLAnthony Britton4541211554212
LBKam Robinson41231127443212
LBMaddox Marcellus46454754312
DBJacobie Henderson45454554212
DBBrandyn Hillman34343444111
DBCorey Costner23222321412
DBJustin Ross11111111111
DBMontino Williams22222221212

Each square: games the two players have started together at this school (darker = more). Gray diagonal: the player's own starts here.

Chemistry is Scorebook's own rating of how well a program fits together, on the same all-time 0-99 scale as our other ratings (compared with every FBS team since 2016; 62 is typical, 20-50 signals something is wrong, and single digits are reserved for true collapses; each season is compared with its own era). This early version blends continuity (who has played and coached together, and for how long; it counts most) with the climate around the program; how the program talks joins as it is measured. Within continuity, quarterback-centered pairings count most because they held up when we tested them against results. How our ratings work →