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Games / Week 11 / Florida State @ Pittsburgh
72
Away
Florida State
Seminoles
#39 · 3-3
Week 11 · ESPN · Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh, PA · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Florida State 5 – 7 Pittsburgh
12 since 1971
Last 2025 Pittsburgh 34–31
74
Pittsburgh
Panthers
#35 · 5-1
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Pick a winner · locks at kickoff

Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.

Model vs market

Pittsburgh is favored: 58% to win, by about 3 points.

No betting line yet.

Our model 58%
Win chanceExpected margin
Our model58%Pittsburgh by 3.2
Betting market——
Difference——

The Matchup

Florida StatevsPittsburgh
74
QB
Ashton Daniels
1,320 yds · 8 TD · 7 INT
6.3 rushing EPA per game, top 1% of startersDual Threat
QB
FSU +20
54
QB
Holden Geriner
438 yds · 2 TD · 2 INT
75
RB
Ousmane Kromah
565 yds · 5 TD · 11 rec
RB
FSU +8
67
RB
La'Vell Wright
190 yds · 4 TD · 6 rec
74
WR
Micahi Danzy
19 rec · 293 yds · 2 TD
WR
FSU +2
72
WR
Censere Lee
19 rec · 204 yds · 4 TD
71
TE
Desirrio Riles
4 rec · 17 yds · 0 TD
TE
FSU +4
67
TE
Carson Kent
19 rec · 218 yds · 1 TD
86
OL
Xavier Chaplin
6 starts
starter on a top run-blocking unitRoad Grader43 career startsIron Man
OL
FSU +14
72
OL
Ryan Baer
6 starts
79
DL
Rylan Kennedy
12 tkl · 5 sacks · 7.5 TFL
0.64 TFL per gameBackfield Wrecker
DL
PITT +4
83
DL
Isaiah Neal
17 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 3 TFL
79
LB
Chris Jones
37 tkl · 4 TFL · 1.5 sacks
0.58 sacks + hurries per gameQuarterback Hunter
LB
PITT +4
83
LB
Braylan Lovelace
20 tkl · 2 TFL · 1 sacks
0.03 interceptions per gameBall Hawk
73
DB
Nehemiah Chandler
6 tkl · 1 INT · 1 PD
DB
PITT +4
77
DB
Raion Strader
20 tkl · 1 INT · 5 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.