Week 9 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Clemson 17 – 21 Florida State
38 since 1970 · CLEM 2 straight
Last 2025 Clemson 24–10
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Florida State is favored: 66% to win, by about 6 points.
Betting markets like Clemson instead (50%, by 1.5).
Our model 66%Market 50%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | Florida State by 6.2 |
| Betting market | 50% | Clemson by 1.5 |
| Difference▲ | 16 pts | 7.7 pts |
Gaps this large have landed on our side 59% of the time (183 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
ClemsonvsFlorida State
57
QB
818 yds · 1 TD · 3 INT
QB
FSU +1774
QB
1,320 yds · 8 TD · 7 INT
87
DE
17 tkl · 4 sacks · 6.5 TFL
DL
CLEM +879
DL
12 tkl · 5 sacks · 7.5 TFL
82
LB
39 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1 sacks
LB
CLEM +379
LB
37 tkl · 4 TFL · 1.5 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Clemson -1.5, now -1.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.