Heated rivalry
Week 7 · ESPN · Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL · 82° Light Rain · 9 mph · rain
All-time series
Florida State 33 – 37 Miami
70 since 1951 · MIA 2 straight
Last 2025 Miami 28–22
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Miami is favored: 92% to win, by about 22 points.
Betting markets like Miami a bit less (90%, by 21.3).
Our model 92%Market 90%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 92% | Miami by 22.2 |
| Betting market | 90% | Miami by 21.3 |
| Difference | 2 pts | 0.9 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Florida StatevsMiami
74
QB
1,320 yds · 8 TD · 7 INT
QB
MIA +1589
QB
1,438 yds · 15 TD · 0 INT
74
WR
19 rec · 293 yds · 2 TD
WR
MIA +1993
WR
39 rec · 604 yds · 6 TD
79
DL
12 tkl · 5 sacks · 7.5 TFL
DL
MIA +584
DL
5 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
79
LB
37 tkl · 4 TFL · 1.5 sacks
LB
FSU +277
LB
18 tkl · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Miami -20.8, now -21.3: moved 0.5 points toward Miami
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.