Heated rivalry
Week 13 · Arizona Stadium
Tucson, AZ · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Arizona State 45 – 43 Arizona
89 since 1931 · 1 tie
Last 2025 Arizona 23–7
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Arizona is favored: 76% to win, by about 11 points.
Betting markets like Arizona a bit less (66%, by 4.5).
Our model 76%Market 66%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | Arizona by 11.0 |
| Betting market | 66% | Arizona by 4.5 |
| Difference | 10 pts | 6.5 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
Arizona StatevsArizona
89
WR
34 rec · 590 yds · 7 TD
WR
ASU +782
WR
22 rec · 314 yds · 4 TD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Arizona -4.5, now -4.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.