Established rivalry
Week 7 · FS1 · McLane Stadium
Waco, TX · 90° · 9 mph
All-time series
TCU 60 – 50 Baylor
115 since 1903 · 5 ties
Last 2025 TCU 42–36
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Baylor is favored: 69% to win, by about 7 points.
Betting markets like Baylor a bit less (67%, by 6).
Our model 69%Market 67%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | Baylor by 7.5 |
| Betting market | 67% | Baylor by 6 |
| Difference | 2 pts | 1.5 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
TCUvsBaylor
81
TE
25 rec · 374 yds · 4 TD
TE
TCU +1764
TE
6 rec · 42 yds · 1 TD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Baylor -6.5, now -6: moved 0.5 points toward TCU
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.