Week 7 · Fox · Jones AT&T Stadium
Lubbock, TX · 70° Fair · 8 mph
All-time series
Arizona State 3 – 3 Texas Tech
6 since 1999
Last 2025 Arizona State 26–22
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Texas Tech is favored: 87% to win, by about 17 points.
Betting markets like Texas Tech a bit less (83%, by 14.5).
Our model 87%Market 83%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 87% | Texas Tech by 17.1 |
| Betting market | 83% | Texas Tech by 14.5 |
| Difference | 4 pts | 2.6 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 49% of the time (891 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Arizona StatevsTexas Tech
89
WR
34 rec · 590 yds · 7 TD
WR
ASU +1277
WR
4 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
76
LB
39 tkl · 5.5 TFL · 0 sacks
LB
TTU +1288
LB
33 tkl · 5 TFL · 1 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Texas Tech -13.3, now -14.5: moved 1.3 points toward Texas Tech
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.