Heated rivalry
Week 13 · ABC · Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Florida 39 – 29 Florida State
70 since 1904 · 2 ties · FLA 2 straight
Last 2025 Florida 40–21
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Florida is favored: 59% to win, by about 3 points.
Betting markets like Florida a bit more (65%, by 4.5).
Our model 59%Market 65%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | Florida by 3.4 |
| Betting market | 65% | Florida by 4.5 |
| Difference | 6 pts | 1.1 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
FloridavsFlorida State
76
QB
1,341 yds · 9 TD · 3 INT
QB
FLA +274
QB
1,320 yds · 8 TD · 7 INT
85
DL
11 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
DL
FLA +679
DL
12 tkl · 5 sacks · 7.5 TFL
80
LB
24 tkl · 7 TFL · 4.5 sacks
LB
FLA +179
LB
37 tkl · 4 TFL · 1.5 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Florida -4.5, now -4.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.