Week 7 · ESPNU · Bridgeforth Stadium
Harrisonburg, VA · 56° · 13 mph
All-time series
Georgia State 0 – 5 James Madison
5 since 2012 · JMU 5 straight
Last 2025 James Madison 14–7
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
James Madison is favored: 78% to win, by about 12 points.
Betting markets agree (79%, by 12.5).
Our model 78%Market 79%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | James Madison by 11.9 |
| Betting market | 79% | James Madison by 12.5 |
| Difference | 1 pts | 0.6 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Georgia StatevsJames Madison
77
QB
1,157 yds · 12 TD · 4 INT
QB
GAST +968
QB
1,151 yds · 11 TD · 1 INT
84
WR
18 rec · 276 yds · 6 TD
WR
GAST +678
WR
21 rec · 289 yds · 4 TD
78
DE
13 tkl · 5 sacks · 6.5 TFL
DL
even78
EDGE
17 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
80
LB
18 tkl · 8.5 TFL · 7 sacks
LB
GAST +2Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened James Madison -12.3, now -12.5: moved 0.3 points toward James Madison
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.