Week 13 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Jonesboro, AR · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Troy 9 – 11 Arkansas State
20 since 1991 · ARST 2 straight
Last 2025 Arkansas State 23–10
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Arkansas State is favored: 53% to win, by about 1 points.
No betting line yet.
Our model 53%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | Arkansas State by 1.0 |
| Betting market | — | — |
| Difference | — | — |
The Matchup
TroyvsArkansas State
77
LB
35 tkl · 5 TFL · 1.5 sacks
LB
TROY +671
LB
26 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.