Week 7 · ESPN+ · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Hattiesburg, MS · 85° · 7 mph
All-time series
Arkansas State 3 – 9 Southern Miss
12 since 1963
Last 2025 Southern Miss 27–21
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Arkansas State is favored: 63% to win, by about 5 points.
Betting markets like Arkansas State a bit more (70%, by 7).
Our model 63%Market 70%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | Arkansas State by 5.0 |
| Betting market | 70% | Arkansas State by 7 |
| Difference | 7 pts | 2 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Arkansas StatevsSouthern Miss
76
WR
29 rec · 408 yds · 3 TD
WR
USM +581
WR
28 rec · 404 yds · 5 TD
71
LB
26 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1 sacks
LB
ARST +170
LB
11 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Arkansas State -7, now -7: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.