Week 7 · ESPN+ · Yager Stadium
Oxford, OH · 58° · 6 mph
All-time series
Akron 8 – 22 Miami (OH)
30 since 1993 · M-OH 8 straight
Last 2025 Miami (OH) 20–7
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Miami (OH) is favored: 78% to win, by about 12 points.
Betting markets like Miami (OH) a bit less (76%, by 9.5).
Our model 78%Market 76%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | Miami (OH) by 12.0 |
| Betting market | 76% | Miami (OH) by 9.5 |
| Difference | 2 pts | 2.5 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 49% of the time (891 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
AkronvsMiami (OH)
74
DE
8 tkl · 1 sacks · 2 TFL
DL
M-OH +276
DL
13 tkl · 2 sacks · 2.5 TFL
68
LB
18 tkl · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
LB
M-OH +876
LB
15 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 2 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Miami (OH) -9.8, now -9.5: moved 0.3 points toward Akron
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.