Week 7 · ESPN+ · Hornet Stadium
Sacramento, CA · 83° · 1 mph
All-time series
First meeting
First meeting on file.
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Ohio is favored: 74% to win, by about 10 points.
Betting markets like Ohio a bit more (83%, by 15.3).
Our model 74%Market 83%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | Ohio by 9.9 |
| Betting market | 83% | Ohio by 15.3 |
| Difference | 9 pts | 5.3 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
OhiovsSacramento State
83
LB
50 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3 sacks
LB
OHIO +1370
LB
26 tkl · 3 TFL · 1 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Ohio -14, now -15.3: moved 1.3 points toward Ohio
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.