Week 7 · ESPN+ · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Mount Pleasant, MI · 58° · 10 mph
All-time series
Western Michigan 27 – 32 Central Michigan
60 since 1962 · 1 tie
Last 2025 Western Michigan 24–21
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Western Michigan is favored: 67% to win, by about 7 points.
Betting markets like Western Michigan a bit more (70%, by 6.5).
Our model 67%Market 70%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | Western Michigan by 7.0 |
| Betting market | 70% | Western Michigan by 6.5 |
| Difference | 3 pts | 0.5 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Western MichiganvsCentral Michigan
79
DE
17 tkl · 2 sacks · 2.5 TFL
DL
WMU +376
DL
6 tkl · 1 sacks · 1 TFL
72
LB
36 tkl · 3 TFL · 2.5 sacks
LB
WMU +270
LB
41 tkl · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Western Michigan -7, now -6.5: moved 0.5 points toward Central Michigan
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.