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Games / Week 3 / Ball State @ Liberty
39
Away
Cardinals
#137 · 1-1
As of kickoff
Week 3 · ESPN+ · Williams Stadium (VA)
Lynchburg, VA · 82° Cloudy · 4 mph
All-time series
Ball State 0 – 2 Liberty
2 since 2010 · LIB 2 straight
Last 2026 Liberty 51–15
58
Flames
#95 · 1-1
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Picks · locked at kickoff

Sign in to pick next week’s games. We had Liberty · hit.

Model vs marketKickoff line · frozen
We
Liberty by 16.6
Close
Liberty by 14.5
Final
Liberty by 36
Winner
hit

Got right — the winner (Liberty); closer than the market (19 pts off vs 22).

Missed — the margin (final Liberty by 36, we had Liberty by 16.6).

Ball State
15
Final
Liberty won
Liberty
51
How it was won
  1. 1.Henderson pass complete short left to Kellman caught at BSU 24, for 21 yards, touchdown
  2. 2.Liberty out-gained Ball State 460-261.
  3. 3.Liberty converted 10 of 13 third downs; Ball State went 1 of 9.

The Matchup

Ball StatevsLiberty
55
QB
871 yds · 6 TD · 4 INT
QB
LIB +9
61
RB
312 yds · 5 TD · 10 rec
RB
LIB +24
67
WR
19 rec · 196 yds · 2 TD
WR
LIB +19
57
TE
8 rec · 37 yds · 1 TD
TE
BALL +3
54
TE
2 rec · 9 yds · 0 TD
56
OL
6 starts
OL
LIB +22
78
OL
67
DE
14 tkl · 0 sacks · 0 TFL
DL
LIB +7
74
DL
10 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 5 TFL
73
LB
31 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.5 sacks
LB
LIB +1
74
LB
33 tkl · 5.5 TFL · 0 sacks
70
DB
10 tkl · 1 INT · 2 PD
DB
LIB +4
74
CB
19 tkl · 0 INT · 4 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Market line historyWhat’s this?

Opened Liberty -14.3, now -14.3: unchanged

Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.