Week 7 · FS1 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Honolulu, HI · 82° Fair · 15 mph
All-time series
New Mexico 11 – 17 Hawai'i
28 since 1964
Last 2024 Hawai'i 38–30
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
New Mexico is favored: 89% to win, by about 19 points.
Betting markets like New Mexico a bit less (83%, by 14.5).
Our model 89%Market 83%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 89% | New Mexico by 19.1 |
| Betting market | 83% | New Mexico by 14.5 |
| Difference | 6 pts | 4.6 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
New MexicovsHawai'i
82
S
18 tkl · 2 INT · 2 PD
DB
UNM +973
DB
31 tkl · 0 INT · 4 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened New Mexico -14.8, now -14.5: moved 0.3 points toward Hawai'i
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.