Week 7 · ESPN+ · Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL · 80° · 7 mph
All-time series
First meeting
First meeting on file.
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
South Florida is favored: 94% to win, by about 24 points.
Betting markets like South Florida a bit less (89%, by 20.8).
Our model 94%Market 89%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 94% | South Florida by 23.6 |
| Betting market | 89% | South Florida by 20.8 |
| Difference | 5 pts | 2.9 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 49% of the time (891 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Kent StatevsSouth Florida
74
DL
12 tkl · 2 sacks · 2 TFL
DL
USF +579
DE
15 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
72
LB
26 tkl · 4 TFL · 3 sacks
LB
USF +173
LB
30 tkl · 3 TFL · 1 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened South Florida -19.3, now -20.8: moved 1.5 points toward South Florida
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.