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Teams / American Athletic / South Florida
Index · this season
64
▲ Above its 5-year level +5▼ Down 4 this season
Career63since 1936
Peak842007
Last 559seasons
#72 nationally · 4-2 (1-2 conf)
Résumé #80
Schedule so far #122
Margin ±5 pts (tightens with games)
Why 64? →

South Florida Bulls

American Athletic · Tampa, FL · Raymond James Stadium · Head coach Brian Hartline
Rival
Cincinnati · also UCF
Building rivalry
7-13 all time (20 meetings since 2003)
Cincinnati leads
Last: lost 28-24 (2022) · Cincinnati has won 5 straight
Wants it back
program traits are earned from history
No recognized national titles since 1936. Counted: AP poll champion, a coaches-poll champion, or the BCS / playoff title-game winner; a split year counts for both.0national titles
Heisman Trophy winners0Heisman
Seasons finishing in the AP top 10 since 19360AP top-10
Consensus All-Americans since 19361All-Americans
NFL draft picks since 196730NFL picks
Winning percentage since 193652.5%win pct
History since 1936 · football since 2000. Every season →
Chemistry
Chem 33: new staff, still building33
Chem 15: collapse
15Foundation
Chem 55: typical
55Gel
gel counts 45% so far
▼ Below its norm -20Trending down
early · #129 of 138
HC year1
Ret. starters14%
QB yrs w/ OC1
View chemistry →
Team chemistryearly · #129 of 138 FBS teams
Chem 15: collapseFoundation15+Chem 55: typicalGel55=Chem 33: warning zoneChem33Gel counts 45% so far (it grows as games are played, up to half)
Foundationwhat the program has built · moves over seasons
Foundation15Staff stability — Coach and coordinator tenure, staff who came along, assistant turnoverStaff stability24Roster continuity — Returning starters and the lineup's experienceRoster continuity42Unit cohesion — QB & coordinator, QB & receivers, offensive line, defense: how long each unit has played togetherUnit cohesion53Administration — Athletic director continuity and coach-AD alignmentAdministration49Investment — Commitment to football: its share of the department's spending and whether that is growing, plus spending and recruitingInvestment69Fan base — How passionate and loyal the fan base is: how often it sells out, and whether it sells out games that don't matterFan base54
ContinuityClimate
Continuity · who has played and coached togetherlive

Who has played and coached together, and for how long, ranked against every FBS team at the same point of the season.

▸Staff stability
Coach and coordinator tenure, staff who came along, assistant turnover
24
Staff cohesion13
HC year 1 · OC year 1 · DC year 1
Assistant turnover36
82% of on-field staff new this season (FBS average about 45%)
▸Roster continuity
Returning starters and the lineup's experience
42
Returning core26
14% of last season's starters · FBS median 32%
Experience57
11 career starts per starter · FBS median 12
▸Unit cohesion
QB & coordinator, QB & receivers, offensive line, defense: how long each unit has played together
53
QB & coordinator55
1st season together · same as 76% of FBS teams
QB & receivers56
3.5 games started together on average · FBS median 3.9
Line cohesion46
3.7 games per linemen pair · FBS median 5.2
Defensive cohesion51
3.9 games per defensive pair · FBS median 4.5
Climate · around the programlive

The administration, money and fans around the team: athletic director continuity, willingness to invest, and crowds.

▸Administration
Athletic director continuity and coach-AD alignment
49
AD continuity49
Rob Higgins · year 2 (Wikipedia, CC BY-SA)
▸Investment
Commitment to football: its share of the department's spending and whether that is growing, plus spending and recruiting
69
Football's share52
27% of department spending goes to football
Investment trend87
+78% over three years
Football investment63
$33.4M on football (2024-25 federal report)
Recruiting spend73
$2.41M men's recruiting
Department resources64
$122M athletic department revenue
▸Fan base
How passionate and loyal the fan base is: how often it sells out, and whether it sells out games that don't matter
54
Sellouts53
sellout crowds (95%+ of capacity) at 2 of 38 home games (last 8 seasons)
Sells out anyway55
sellout crowds at 2 of 31 games that didn't matter: cupcakes, or a team expected to lose or having a losing season

Finances: U.S. Department of Education athletics disclosures, as reported by each school. Athletic directors: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA). Attendance: reported crowds vs stadium capacity.

Gelhow it is working right now · moves week to week
Gel55Playing above its parts — Results vs what its preseason projection expected, game by gamePlaying above its parts43Settled & sharp — A settled starting lineup and clean execution (penalties, turnovers) vs its own normalSettled & sharp50Alignment — Coaches and players telling the same story; the staff on one pageAlignmentsoonResilience — Confidence, and how the team sounds after adversityResiliencesoonFan & media mood — Expectations met or missed this season (preseason rank vs now), stronger for fan bases that react hard; fan and media sentiment joins laterFan & media mood51Coach security — The hard-facts hot seat, inverted: results vs expectation, recent seasons vs the program's norm, stakes, a new ADCoach security78
InternalOn-field fitExternal
Internal · how the program talkscoming

How the team talks in press conferences and interviews, each program against its own normal, so a naturally terse coach isn't read as upset. Being built program by program, Big Ten first.

▸Alignment
Coaches and players telling the same story; the staff on one page
soon
Coming: measured from press conferences and interviews.
▸Resilience
Confidence, and how the team sounds after adversity
soon
Coming: measured from press conferences and interviews.

Readings are team-level; we don't publish psychological readings of individual players.

On-field fit · how it is playing togetherlive

How the team is playing together this season: beating or missing its preseason expectation, a settled lineup, clean execution.

▸Playing above its parts
Results vs what its preseason projection expected, game by game
43
This season43
-4.7 points a game vs its preseason projection (5 games)
▸Settled & sharp
A settled starting lineup and clean execution (penalties, turnovers) vs its own normal
50
This season50
73% of starters kept game to game
External · pressure from outsidelive

Pressure from outside the building: the hard-facts hot seat now; this season's fan and media mood as it is measured.

▸Fan & media mood
Expectations met or missed this season (preseason rank vs now), stronger for fan bases that react hard; fan and media sentiment joins later
51
This season51
outside the AP poll: projected #65 preseason -> #72 in our Index now · results 4-2 (-2, recent games count more)
▸Coach security
The hard-facts hot seat, inverted: results vs expectation, recent seasons vs the program's norm, stakes, a new AD
78
This season78
Brian Hartline, year 1 · 67% wins so far · -4.7 pts a game vs preseason expectation

Dashed gold ring = typical (62). 20-50 is the warning zone; under 10 is a collapse. Spokes with no data yet are dashed and left out until they fill in. Chem blends the two halves, then places the blend among this season's teams.

Trend · Foundationeach program year runs Feb 1 to the title game
'1669'1765'1855'1966'2020'2155'2252'2328'2457'2562'262016 wk 1 vs Towson: 53 · W2016 wk 2 vs Northern Illinois: 74 · W2016 wk 3 vs Syracuse: 65 · W2016 wk 4 vs Florida State: 67 · L2016 wk 5 vs Cincinnati: 74 · W2016 wk 6 vs East Carolina: 67 · W2016 wk 7 vs UConn: 62 · W2016 wk 8 vs Temple: 62 · L2016 wk 9 vs Navy: 65 · W2016 wk 11 vs Memphis: 65 · W2016 wk 12 vs SMU: 68 · W2016 wk 13 vs UCF: 68 · W2016 wk 1 vs South Carolina: 69 · W2017 wk 1 vs Stony Brook: 61 · W2017 wk 3 vs Illinois: 63 · W2017 wk 4 vs Temple: 64 · W2017 wk 5 vs East Carolina: 64 · W2017 wk 7 vs Cincinnati: 65 · W2017 wk 8 vs Tulane: 63 · W2017 wk 9 vs Houston: 65 · L2017 wk 10 vs UConn: 65 · W2017 wk 12 vs Tulsa: 65 · W2017 wk 13 vs UCF: 65 · L2017 wk 1 vs Texas Tech: 65 · W2018 wk 2 vs Georgia Tech: 58 · W2018 wk 3 vs Illinois: 57 · W2018 wk 4 vs East Carolina: 56 · W2018 wk 6 vs Massachusetts: 58 · W2018 wk 7 vs Tulsa: 59 · W2018 wk 8 vs UConn: 56 · W2018 wk 9 vs Houston: 56 · L2018 wk 10 vs Tulane: 57 · L2018 wk 11 vs Cincinnati: 55 · L2018 wk 12 vs Temple: 56 · L2018 wk 13 vs UCF: 59 · L2018 wk 1 vs Marshall: 55 · L2019 wk 2 vs Georgia Tech: 65 · L2019 wk 3 vs South Carolina State: 67 · W2019 wk 5 vs SMU: 63 · L2019 wk 6 vs UConn: 63 · W2019 wk 7 vs BYU: 66 · W2019 wk 8 vs Navy: 65 · L2019 wk 9 vs East Carolina: 66 · W2019 wk 11 vs Temple: 67 · L2019 wk 12 vs Cincinnati: 66 · L2019 wk 13 vs Memphis: 63 · L2019 wk 14 vs UCF: 66 · L2020 wk 3 vs Notre Dame: 19 · L2020 wk 5 vs Cincinnati: 19 · L2020 wk 6 vs East Carolina: 4 · L2020 wk 7 vs Temple: 22 · L2020 wk 8 vs Tulsa: 23 · L2020 wk 10 vs Memphis: 24 · L2020 wk 11 vs Houston: 19 · L2020 wk 13 vs UCF: 20 · L2021 wk 2 vs Florida: 54 · L2021 wk 3 vs Florida A&M: 54 · W2021 wk 4 vs BYU: 52 · L2021 wk 5 vs SMU: 51 · L2021 wk 7 vs Tulsa: 54 · L2021 wk 8 vs Temple: 53 · W2021 wk 9 vs East Carolina: 53 · L2021 wk 10 vs Houston: 52 · L2021 wk 11 vs Cincinnati: 53 · L2021 wk 12 vs Tulane: 52 · L2021 wk 13 vs UCF: 55 · L2022 wk 2 vs Howard: 62 · W2022 wk 3 vs Florida: 63 · L2022 wk 4 vs Louisville: 63 · L2022 wk 5 vs East Carolina: 63 · L2022 wk 6 vs Cincinnati: 60 · L2022 wk 7 vs Tulane: 58 · L2022 wk 9 vs Houston: 60 · L2022 wk 10 vs Temple: 58 · L2022 wk 11 vs SMU: 59 · L2022 wk 12 vs Tulsa: 58 · L2022 wk 13 vs UCF: 52 · L2023 wk 2 vs Florida A&M: 34 · W2023 wk 3 vs Alabama: 33 · L2023 wk 4 vs Rice: 33 · W2023 wk 5 vs Navy: 32 · W2023 wk 6 vs UAB: 34 · L2023 wk 7 vs Florida Atlantic: 35 · L2023 wk 8 vs UConn: 34 · W2023 wk 10 vs Memphis: 34 · L2023 wk 11 vs Temple: 35 · W2023 wk 12 vs UTSA: 30 · L2023 wk 13 vs Charlotte: 32 · W2023 wk 1 vs Syracuse: 28 · W2024 wk 2 vs Alabama: 63 · L2024 wk 3 vs Southern Miss: 64 · W2024 wk 4 vs Miami: 64 · L2024 wk 5 vs Tulane: 65 · L2024 wk 7 vs Memphis: 62 · L2024 wk 8 vs UAB: 58 · W2024 wk 10 vs Florida Atlantic: 54 · W2024 wk 11 vs Navy: 54 · L2024 wk 12 vs Charlotte: 54 · W2024 wk 13 vs Tulsa: 55 · W2024 wk 14 vs Rice: 59 · L2024 wk 1 vs San José State: 57 · W2025 wk 2 vs Florida: 63 · W2025 wk 3 vs Miami: 64 · L2025 wk 4 vs South Carolina State: 65 · W2025 wk 6 vs Charlotte: 64 · W2025 wk 7 vs North Texas: 64 · W2025 wk 8 vs Florida Atlantic: 64 · W2025 wk 9 vs Memphis: 63 · L2025 wk 11 vs UTSA: 63 · W2025 wk 12 vs Navy: 63 · L2025 wk 13 vs UAB: 64 · W2025 wk 14 vs Rice: 64 · W2025 wk 1 vs Old Dominion: 62 · L2026 wk 2 vs Army: 14 · W2026 wk 3 vs Delaware State: 14 · W2026 wk 4 vs Bowling Green: 12 · W2026 wk 5 vs Temple: 13 · L2026 wk 6 vs UTSA: 11 · L2026 wk 7 vs Kent State: 15 · next gametypical 62

Every game since 2016, one continuous line; thin rules separate seasons and the chip is where each season finished. Navy dot = win, red = loss. Big drops usually mean a new staff, a new quarterback or a rebuilt line.

Trend · Gelthis season, after each game
typical 62wk 1 · on-field 80 · fan mood 57721wk 2 vs Army · W · on-field 71 · fan mood 62682wk 3 vs Delaware State · W · on-field 58 · fan mood 66613wk 4 vs Bowling Green · W · on-field 56 · fan mood 63594wk 5 vs Temple · L · on-field 52 · fan mood 51525wk 6 vs UTSA · L · on-field 48 · fan mood 45476

How the team is working right now, rebuilt after each game from only the games so far: on-field fit (results vs preseason expectation, lineup settling, execution) and that week's fan & media mood. Coach security is part of today's Gel number but isn't rebuilt week by week yet. Navy frame = win, red = loss.

Continuity facts
Head coach
Year 1
new this season
Offensive coordinator
Year 1
new this season
Defensive coordinator
Year 1
new this season
HC & OC together
1 seasons
working together
QB with his OC
1 seasons
same play-caller
QB & receivers
3.5 games
started together, average
Offensive line pairs
3.7 games
started together, average
Returning starters
14%
from last season
Starter experience
11 starts
career average
Internal facts
Pressers read
soon
this season, coaches and players
Coach tone
soon
vs his own normal
"We" vs "I"
soon
share of team language
Owning mistakes
soon
vs pointing outward
Same story
soon
coaches and players agree
After losses
soon
how fast tone recovers
Leaders named
soon
players teammates point to
Newcomers
soon
transfers talked about as part of it
Openness
soon
forthcoming vs guarded
Measured from press conferences and interviews, program by program.
Climate facts
Athletic director
Rob Higgins
year 2
Football spending
$33.4M
2024-25 federal report
Spending trend
+78%
over three years
Department revenue
$122M
all sports
Recruiting spend
$2.41M
men's teams
Home crowds
—
of capacity
Staff turnover
82%
on-field staff new this season
Fan mood
soon
fans and local media
Coach & AD
soon
on the same page
Finances: U.S. Department of Education athletics disclosures. Athletic directors: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA).
Offense · games started togetherlatest lineup · 11 starters
Buren
Crowther
Rodgers
Seldon
Porter
Dangler
Cook
Green
Wooten
Tate
Collins
QBMichael Van Buren Jr.64614366354
RBD.J. Crowther44414244143
WRBryson Rodgers64614366354
WRCameron Seldon11111111111
WRJoshua Porter44415244143
TEEvan Dangler32312533232
OLCaleb Cook64614366354
OLEthan Green64614366354
OLMichael Wooten31311233322
OLJulius Tate54514355253
OLKhalil Collins43413244234

Each square: games the two players have started together at this school (darker = more). Gray diagonal: the player's own starts here.

Defense · games started togetherlatest lineup · 11 starters
Hicks
Redwood
Williams
Dillard
Howard
Robinson
Beasley
Ward
Jackson
Foster
Fortenberry
DLC.J. Hicks44443324343
DLAsani Redwood46564536554
DLMichael Williams II451053438443
DLMajor Dillard46564536554
LBGrayson Howard34344324344
LBSam Robinson35453525543
DBTayvion Beasley23332233222
DBTavin Ward468645330554
DBAyden Jackson35453525543
DBTeddy Foster45454425454
DBAmarion Fortenberry34344324344

Each square: games the two players have started together at this school (darker = more). Gray diagonal: the player's own starts here.

Chemistry is Scorebook's own rating of how well a program fits together, on the same all-time 0-99 scale as our other ratings (compared with every FBS team since 2016; 62 is typical, 20-50 signals something is wrong, and single digits are reserved for true collapses; each season is compared with its own era). This early version blends continuity (who has played and coached together, and for how long; it counts most) with the climate around the program; how the program talks joins as it is measured. Within continuity, quarterback-centered pairings count most because they held up when we tested them against results. How our ratings work →