Bitter rivalry
Week 13 · Autzen Stadium
Eugene, OR · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Washington 56 – 46 Oregon
106 since 1916 · 4 ties · ORE 2 straight
Last 2025 Oregon 26–14
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Oregon is favored: 87% to win, by about 17 points.
Betting markets like Oregon a bit less (84%, by 15.5).
Our model 87%Market 84%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 87% | Oregon by 17.2 |
| Betting market | 84% | Oregon by 15.5 |
| Difference | 3 pts | 1.7 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
WashingtonvsOregon
76
LB
34 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 2.5 sacks
LB
ORE +1490
LB
26 tkl · 3 TFL · 1 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Oregon -15.5, now -15.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.