Week 11 · Autzen Stadium
Eugene, OR · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Michigan 3 – 3 Oregon
6 since 1948 · ORE 3 straight
Last 2024 Oregon 38–17
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Oregon is favored: 79% to win, by about 13 points.
Betting markets like Oregon a bit more (82%, by 13.5).
Our model 79%Market 82%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | Oregon by 12.7 |
| Betting market | 82% | Oregon by 13.5 |
| Difference | 3 pts | 0.8 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
MichiganvsOregon
77
LB
40 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 0 sacks
LB
ORE +1390
LB
26 tkl · 3 TFL · 1 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Oregon -13.5, now -13.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.