Week 11 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Bloomington, IN · Forecast TBA
All-time series
USC 4 – 0 Indiana
4 since 1953 · USC 4 straight
Last 1982 USC 28–7
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Indiana is favored: 75% to win, by about 10 points.
Betting markets like Indiana a bit more (79%, by 10).
Our model 75%Market 79%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | Indiana by 10.5 |
| Betting market | 79% | Indiana by 10 |
| Difference | 4 pts | 0.5 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
USCvsIndiana
87
QB
2,045 yds · 18 TD · 3 INT
QB
even87
QB
1,364 yds · 17 TD · 0 INT
85
WR
22 rec · 366 yds · 5 TD
WR
IU +590
WR
30 rec · 529 yds · 8 TD
76
DE
27 tkl · 2 sacks · 6 TFL
DL
IU +1187
DL
22 tkl · 5 sacks · 9.5 TFL
70
LB
28 tkl · 2 TFL · 0.5 sacks
LB
IU +1888
LB
41 tkl · 3 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Indiana -10, now -10: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.