Week 10 · Ohio Stadium
Columbus, OH · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Oregon 2 – 10 Ohio State
12 since 1957
Last 2024 Oregon 32–31
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Ohio State is favored: 77% to win, by about 12 points.
Betting markets like Ohio State a bit less (69%, by 6).
Our model 77%Market 69%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | Ohio State by 11.7 |
| Betting market | 69% | Ohio State by 6 |
| Difference | 8 pts | 5.7 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
OregonvsOhio State
77
WR
27 rec · 352 yds · 4 TD
WR
OSU +2198
WR
48 rec · 916 yds · 11 TD
90
LB
26 tkl · 3 TFL · 1 sacks
LB
ORE +1377
LB
30 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Ohio State -6, now -6: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.