Heated rivalry
Week 10 · Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Michigan State 38 – 75 Michigan
118 since 1898 · 5 ties · MICH 4 straight
Last 2025 Michigan 31–20
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Michigan is favored: 69% to win, by about 8 points.
Betting markets like Michigan a bit more (87%, by 16.5).
Our model 69%Market 87%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | Michigan by 7.6 |
| Betting market | 87% | Michigan by 16.5 |
| Difference▲ | 18 pts | 8.9 pts |
Gaps this large have landed on our side 59% of the time (183 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
Michigan StatevsMichigan
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Michigan -16.5, now -16.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.