Week 9 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Los Angeles, CA · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Ohio State 10 – 13 USC
24 since 1937 · 1 tie
Last 2017 Ohio State 24–7
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Ohio State is favored: 74% to win, by about 10 points.
Betting markets agree (73%, by 7.5).
Our model 74%Market 73%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | Ohio State by 10.1 |
| Betting market | 73% | Ohio State by 7.5 |
| Difference | 1 pts | 2.6 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 49% of the time (891 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Ohio StatevsUSC
93
QB
1,772 yds · 17 TD · 2 INT
QB
OSU +687
QB
2,045 yds · 18 TD · 3 INT
98
WR
48 rec · 916 yds · 11 TD
WR
OSU +1385
WR
22 rec · 366 yds · 5 TD
77
LB
30 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sacks
LB
OSU +770
LB
28 tkl · 2 TFL · 0.5 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Ohio State -7.5, now -7.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.