Week 8 · Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Indiana 11 – 62 Michigan
73 since 1900
Last 2024 Indiana 20–15
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Indiana is favored: 73% to win, by about 9 points.
Betting markets like Indiana a bit less (69%, by 6).
Our model 73%Market 69%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | Indiana by 9.4 |
| Betting market | 69% | Indiana by 6 |
| Difference | 4 pts | 3.4 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 49% of the time (891 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
IndianavsMichigan
87
QB
1,364 yds · 17 TD · 0 INT
QB
IU +2067
QB
881 yds · 5 TD · 4 INT
84
RB
597 yds · 5 TD · 3 rec
RB
IU +1173
RB
244 yds · 3 TD · 3 rec
90
WR
30 rec · 529 yds · 8 TD
WR
IU +1080
WR
24 rec · 446 yds · 4 TD
87
DL
22 tkl · 5 sacks · 9.5 TFL
DL
IU +285
DE
16 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
88
LB
41 tkl · 3 TFL · 0 sacks
LB
IU +1177
LB
40 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Indiana -6, now -6: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.