Heated rivalry
Week 12 · Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Virginia Tech 15 – 27 Miami
42 since 1953 · MIA 5 straight
Last 2025 Miami 34–17
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Miami is favored: 93% to win, by about 23 points.
Betting markets like Miami a bit less (88%, by 16.5).
Our model 93%Market 88%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 93% | Miami by 22.8 |
| Betting market | 88% | Miami by 16.5 |
| Difference | 5 pts | 6.3 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
Virginia TechvsMiami
77
QB
1,734 yds · 12 TD · 2 INT
QB
MIA +1289
QB
1,438 yds · 15 TD · 0 INT
74
WR
14 rec · 275 yds · 2 TD
WR
MIA +1993
WR
39 rec · 604 yds · 6 TD
88
TE
41 rec · 431 yds · 4 TD
TE
VT +1672
TE
12 rec · 134 yds · 1 TD
79
DL
14 tkl · 5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
DL
MIA +584
DL
5 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Miami -16.5, now -16.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.