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Games / Week 9 / Miami @ North Carolina
93
Away
Miami
Hurricanes
#4 · 5-0
Week 9 · Kenan Stadium
Chapel Hill, NC · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Miami 11 – 16 North Carolina
27 since 1946 · UNC 5 straight
Last 2023 North Carolina 41–31
68
North Carolina
Tar Heels
#57 · 3-2
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Pick a winner · locks at kickoff

Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.

Model vs market

Miami is favored: 92% to win, by about 21 points.

No betting line yet.

Our model 92%
Win chanceExpected margin
Our model92%Miami by 21.4
Betting market——
Difference——

The Matchup

MiamivsNorth Carolina
89
QB
Darian Mensah★
1,438 yds · 15 TD · 0 INT
success rate 68% per attempt, top 0% of startersSurgeonINT rate 0.0%, top 1% of startersBall Guardian
QB
MIA +22
67
QB
Billy Edwards
1,068 yds · 8 TD · 5 INT
78
RB
Mark Fletcher Jr.
307 yds · 5 TD · 4 rec
RB
MIA +15
63
RB
Demon June
143 yds · 5 TD · 1 rec
93
WR
Malachi Toney★
39 rec · 604 yds · 6 TD
1.20 TDs per gameRed Zone Threat9.4 targets per gameTarget Magnet
WR
MIA +19
74
WR
Jordan Shipp
26 rec · 366 yds · 0 TD
72
TE
Elija Lofton
12 rec · 134 yds · 1 TD
TE
UNC +7
79
TE
Jelani Thurman
22 rec · 262 yds · 4 TD
0.80 TDs per gameRed Zone Threat7.4 targets per gameTarget Magnet
87
OL
Matthew McCoy
5 starts
starter on a top pass-protection unitBrick Wall
OL
MIA +24
63
OL
Christo Kelly
5 starts
84
DL
Damon Wilson II
5 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
DL
MIA +1
83
DL
Xavier Lewis
29 tkl · 6.5 sacks · 9.5 TFL
0.81 TFL per gameBackfield Wrecker0.73 sacks + hurries per gameQuarterback Hunter
77
LB
Mohamed Toure
18 tkl · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
LB
MIA +7
70
LB
Derek McDonald
48 tkl · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
80
DB
Zechariah Poyser
15 tkl · 0 INT · 2 PD
DB
MIA +1
79
DB
Jaiden Patterson
23 tkl · 0 INT · 4 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.