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Games / Week 8 / Duke @ Virginia
69
Away
Duke
Blue Devils
#49 · 4-1
Week 8 · ESPN · Scott Stadium
Charlottesville, VA · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Duke 34 – 40 Virginia
74 since 1890
Last 2025 Duke 27–20
68
Virginia
Cavaliers
#54 · 4-2
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Pick a winner · locks at kickoff

Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.

Model vs market

Duke is favored: 50% to win, by about 0 points.

Betting markets like Virginia instead (71%, by 6.5).

Our model 50%Market 71%
Win chanceExpected margin
Our model50%even
Betting market71%Virginia by 6.5
Difference21 pts6.6 pts

Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →

The Matchup

DukevsVirginia
61
QB
Walker Eget
980 yds · 7 TD · 1 INT
QB
UVA +7
68
QB
Beau Pribula
1,080 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
88
RB
Nate Sheppard
743 yds · 8 TD · 17 rec
23.6 carries per gameWorkhorse
RB
DUKE +16
72
RB
Jekail Middlebrook
337 yds · 3 TD · 7 rec
65
WR
Jared Richardson
9 rec · 111 yds · 2 TD
WR
UVA +12
77
WR
Da'Shawn Martin
13 rec · 196 yds · 5 TD
80
TE
Jeremiah Hasley
19 rec · 234 yds · 0 TD
TE
DUKE +22
58
TE
John Rogers
6 rec · 47 yds · 1 TD
77
OL
Matt Craycraft
5 starts
OL
UVA +1
78
OL
Noah Josey
5 starts
42 career startsIron Man
78
DE
Tyshon Reed
11 tkl · 2 sacks · 4.5 TFL
DL
UVA +7
85
DE
Fisher Camac
28 tkl · 2 sacks · 3.5 TFL
77
LB
Luke Mergott
20 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0 sacks
LB
DUKE +1
76
LB
Kam Robinson
23 tkl · 3 TFL · 0 sacks
73
CB
Dylan Flowers
21 tkl · 0 INT · 2 PD
DB
UVA +5
78
S
Brandyn Hillman
23 tkl · 3 INT · 1 PD
0.13 interceptions per gameBall Hawk
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Market line historyWhat’s this?

Opened Virginia -6.5, now -6.5: unchanged

Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.