Virginia at SMU

Games / Week 7 / Virginia @ SMU

Away

Virginia

Cavaliers

#54 · 4-2

Week 7 · CW · Gerald J. Ford Stadium

University Park, TX · 84° · 6 mph

All-time series

Virginia 0 – 1 SMU

1 since 2024

Last 2024 SMU 33–7

SMU

Mustangs

#41 · 4-1

Home

Indexfull →

Chemistryfull →

Staff

hcTony Elliott66

ocDes Kitchings54

dcJohn Rudzinski69

Injuries

ACC availability report · week 6 vs. Syracuse

Alex Dunn DB #27Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Bull Richardson DT #96Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Dillon Newton-Short WR #15Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Isaiah Reese LB #42Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Jack Stevens RB #37Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Noah Hartsoe OL #58Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Tim Hamann PK #14Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Triston Ward WR #23Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Devon Baxter DE #99Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 2 straight reports

Gavin Johnson DE #53Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 2 straight reports

Jason Hammond DT #91Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 2 straight reports

Jaylen Jones S #23Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 2 straight reports

Chase Morrison DT #46Out

Initial: Available → Update 1: Doubtful → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out

Dylan Biehl OL #75Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out

Jewett Hayes DE #85Out

Initial: Available → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out

Omillio Agard CB #20Out

Initial: Questionable → Update 1: Doubtful → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out

Tyler Simmons DT #56Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out

Regulars missing from recent box scores

Makilan Thomas OL · 4 startsMissed last game

Conference reports cover ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC conference games. Return timelines from coaches' comments are coming.

Pick a winner · locks at kickoff

Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.

Model vs market

SMU is favored: 68% to win, by about 7 points.

Betting markets like SMU a bit more (74%, by 9.3).

Our model 68%Market 74%

	Win chance	Expected margin
Our model	68%	SMU by 7.1
Betting market	74%	SMU by 9.3
Difference	6 pts	2.2 pts

Gaps this small have landed on our side 49% of the time (891 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →

The Matchup

VirginiavsSMU

Beau Pribula

1,080 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT

SMU +9

Kevin Jennings

1,613 yds · 14 TD · 5 INT

Jekail Middlebrook

337 yds · 3 TD · 7 rec

SMU +3

Kendrick Raphael

418 yds · 6 TD · 8 rec

Da'Shawn Martin

13 rec · 196 yds · 5 TD

SMU +5

Yannick Smith

14 rec · 231 yds · 2 TD

John Rogers

6 rec · 47 yds · 1 TD

SMU +18

Randy Pittman

16 rec · 153 yds · 3 TD

5 starts

UVA +7

5 starts

28 tkl · 2 sacks · 3.5 TFL

UVA +1

Marques White

16 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 6 TFL

Quarterback Hunter

Kam Robinson

23 tkl · 3 TFL · 0 sacks

even

Brandon Booker

16 tkl · 3 TFL · 1.5 sacks

Ball Hawk

Brandyn Hillman

23 tkl · 3 INT · 1 PD

Ball Hawk

UVA +2

Tyren Polley

29 tkl · 0 INT · 3 PD

Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.

Market line historyWhat’s this?

Opened SMU -8.3, now -9.3: moved one point toward SMU

Model track record

A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.

Indexfull →

Chemistryfull →

Staff

hcRhett Lashlee76

ocD'Eriq King

dcMaurice Crum Jr.72

Injuries

ACC availability report · week 5 vs. Boston College

Abel Hoopii OL #58Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Ahmaad Moses #7Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Caden Marshall LB #12Out

Initial: Questionable → Update 1: Questionable → Update 2: Doubtful → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Christian Rhodes RB #21Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Kenneth Goodwin III LB #30Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

Link Rhodes RB #24Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out · listed out 3 straight reports

I'Zayah Young LB #25Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out

Ira Singleton IV DE #9Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out

Jaelyn Davis-Robinson CB #13Out

Initial: Out → Update 1: Out → Update 2: Out → Game day: Out

Nick Reed PK #99Out

Initial: Questionable → Update 1: Questionable → Update 2: Doubtful → Game day: Out

Marcellus Barnes Jr. CB #8Game Time Decision

Initial: Questionable → Update 1: Questionable → Update 2: Questionable → Game day: Game Time Decision

Conference reports cover ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC conference games. Return timelines from coaches' comments are coming.