Week 7 · ESPN2 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Chestnut Hill, MA · 60° Cloudy · 14 mph
All-time series
Pittsburgh 19 – 16 Boston College
35 since 1959
Last 2025 Pittsburgh 48–7
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Pittsburgh is favored: 74% to win, by about 10 points.
Betting markets like Pittsburgh a bit less (67%, by 6.3).
Our model 74%Market 67%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | Pittsburgh by 10.2 |
| Betting market | 67% | Pittsburgh by 6.3 |
| Difference | 7 pts | 3.9 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 49% of the time (891 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
PittsburghvsBoston College
83
LB
20 tkl · 2 TFL · 1 sacks
LB
PITT +479
LB
43 tkl · 6 TFL · 1 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Pittsburgh -6.5, now -6.3: moved 0.3 points toward Boston College
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.