Established rivalry
Week 7 · FS1 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Manhattan, KS · 57° · 7 mph
All-time series
Kansas 65 – 53 Kansas State
123 since 1902 · 5 ties · KSU 17 straight
Last 2025 Kansas State 42–17
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
This game is a toss-up: about 50% either way.
Betting markets like Kansas State instead (66%, by 4.8).
Our model 50%Market 66%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | even |
| Betting market | 66% | Kansas State by 4.8 |
| Difference | 16 pts | 4.7 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
KansasvsKansas State
87
DE
25 tkl · 3 sacks · 9.5 TFL
DL
KU +285
DE
19 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 8.5 TFL
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Kansas State -6.5, now -4.8: moved 1.8 points toward Kansas
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.