Heated rivalry
Week 13 · FirstBank Stadium
Nashville, TN · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Tennessee 81 – 31 Vanderbilt
116 since 1902 · 4 ties
Last 2025 Vanderbilt 45–24
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Tennessee is favored: 76% to win, by about 11 points.
Betting markets like Tennessee a bit less (59%, by 3).
Our model 76%Market 59%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | Tennessee by 11.1 |
| Betting market | 59% | Tennessee by 3 |
| Difference▲ | 17 pts | 8.1 pts |
Gaps this large have landed on our side 59% of the time (183 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
TennesseevsVanderbilt
89
DL
22 tkl · 5 sacks · 10 TFL
DL
TENN +1277
EDGE
16 tkl · 2 sacks · 6 TFL
85
LB
38 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 2 sacks
LB
TENN +283
LB
33 tkl · 4 TFL · 3 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Tennessee -3, now -3: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.