Heated rivalry
Week 9 · ABC · Neutral · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta, GA · Forecast TBA
All-time series
Florida 44 – 58 Georgia
104 since 1904 · 2 ties · UGA 5 straight
Last 2025 Georgia 24–20
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Georgia is favored: 84% to win, by about 15 points.
Betting markets like Georgia a bit less (81%, by 12.5).
Our model 84%Market 81%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 84% | Georgia by 15.2 |
| Betting market | 81% | Georgia by 12.5 |
| Difference | 3 pts | 2.7 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 49% of the time (891 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
FloridavsGeorgia
85
DL
11 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
DL
FLA +1570
DL
9 tkl · 0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
80
LB
24 tkl · 7 TFL · 4.5 sacks
LB
UGA +484
LB
30 tkl · 7 TFL · 2.5 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Georgia -12.5, now -12.5: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.