Week 7 · ESPN2 · FirstBank Stadium
Nashville, TN · 65° · 7 mph
All-time series
Arkansas 7 – 3 Vanderbilt
10 since 1949
Last 2018 Vanderbilt 45–31
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Vanderbilt is favored: 58% to win, by about 3 points.
Betting markets like Vanderbilt a bit more (67%, by 6.3).
Our model 58%Market 67%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | Vanderbilt by 3.1 |
| Betting market | 67% | Vanderbilt by 6.3 |
| Difference | 9 pts | 3.1 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 49% of the time (891 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
ArkansasvsVanderbilt
74
LB
45 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1 sacks
LB
VAN +983
LB
33 tkl · 4 TFL · 3 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Vanderbilt -6.5, now -6.3: moved 0.3 points toward Arkansas
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.