Week 7 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Austin, TX · 76° Clear · 7 mph
All-time series
Florida 1 – 3 Texas
5 since 1924 · 1 tie
Last 2025 Florida 29–21
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Texas is favored: 76% to win, by about 11 points.
Betting markets like Texas a bit more (77%, by 10.5).
Our model 76%Market 77%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | Texas by 10.9 |
| Betting market | 77% | Texas by 10.5 |
| Difference | 1 pts | 0.4 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
FloridavsTexas
79
WR
26 rec · 376 yds · 3 TD
WR
TEX +382
WR
16 rec · 304 yds · 5 TD
85
DL
11 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
DL
TEX +1196
EDGE
16 tkl · 9 sacks · 11.5 TFL
80
LB
24 tkl · 7 TFL · 4.5 sacks
LB
TEX +1090
LB
42 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 1 sacks
74
CB
10 tkl · 1 INT · 3 PD
DB
TEX +1286
DB
17 tkl · 1 INT · 4 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Texas -10, now -10.5: moved 0.5 points toward Texas
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.