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Teams / Mid-American / Buffalo
Index · this season
51
at its 5-year level
Career48since 1936
Peak652018
Last 552seasons
#126 nationally · 3-3 (1-1 conf)
Résumé #100 · record ahead of its play
Schedule so far #124
Margin ±5 pts (tightens with games)
Why 51? →

Buffalo Bulls

Mid-American · Amherst, NY · UB Stadium · Head coach Pete Lembo
Rival
Building rivalry
16-13 all time (29 meetings since 1966)
Buffalo leads
Last: won 31-28 (2025) · Buffalo has won 3 straight
Holds it
program traits are earned from history
No recognized national titles since 1936. Counted: AP poll champion, a coaches-poll champion, or the BCS / playoff title-game winner; a split year counts for both.0national titles
Heisman Trophy winners0Heisman
Seasons finishing in the AP top 10 since 19360AP top-10
Consensus All-Americans since 19361All-Americans
NFL draft picks since 196711NFL picks
Winning percentage since 193641.2%win pct
History since 1936 · football since 1958. Every season →
Chemistry
Chem 48: warning zone48
Chem 43: warning zone
43Foundation
Chem 57: typical
57Gel
gel counts 40% so far
▼ Below its norm -4
early · #109 of 138
HC year3
Ret. starters18%
QB yrs w/ OC1
View chemistry →
Team chemistryearly · #109 of 138 FBS teams
Chem 43: warning zoneFoundation43+Chem 57: typicalGel57=Chem 48: warning zoneChem48Gel counts 40% so far (it grows as games are played, up to half)
Foundationwhat the program has built · moves over seasons
Foundation43Staff stability — Coach and coordinator tenure, staff who came along, assistant turnoverStaff stability48Roster continuity — Returning starters and the lineup's experienceRoster continuity22Unit cohesion — QB & coordinator, QB & receivers, offensive line, defense: how long each unit has played togetherUnit cohesion42Administration — Athletic director continuity and coach-AD alignmentAdministration74Investment — Commitment to football: its share of the department's spending and whether that is growing, plus spending and recruitingInvestment58Fan base — How passionate and loyal the fan base is: how often it sells out, and whether it sells out games that don't matterFan base32
ContinuityClimate
Continuity · who has played and coached togetherlive

Who has played and coached together, and for how long, ranked against every FBS team at the same point of the season.

▸Staff stability
Coach and coordinator tenure, staff who came along, assistant turnover
48
Staff cohesion48
HC year 3 · OC year 1 · DC year 1
▸Roster continuity
Returning starters and the lineup's experience
22
Returning core37
18% of last season's starters · FBS median 32%
Experience6
5 career starts per starter · FBS median 12
▸Unit cohesion
QB & coordinator, QB & receivers, offensive line, defense: how long each unit has played together
42
QB & coordinator55
1st season together · same as 76% of FBS teams
QB & receivers52
3.4 games started together on average · FBS median 3.9
Line cohesion22
2.9 games per linemen pair · FBS median 5.2
Defensive cohesion30
3.3 games per defensive pair · FBS median 4.5
Climate · around the programlive

The administration, money and fans around the team: athletic director continuity, willingness to invest, and crowds.

▸Administration
Athletic director continuity and coach-AD alignment
74
AD continuity74
Mark Alnutt · year 9 (Wikipedia, CC BY-SA)
▸Investment
Commitment to football: its share of the department's spending and whether that is growing, plus spending and recruiting
58
Football's share57
28% of department spending goes to football
Investment trend72
+50% over three years
Football investment50
$14.1M on football (2024-25 federal report)
Recruiting spend38
$0.50M men's recruiting
Department resources50
$50M athletic department revenue
▸Fan base
How passionate and loyal the fan base is: how often it sells out, and whether it sells out games that don't matter
32
Sellouts30
sellout crowds (95%+ of capacity) at 0 of 40 home games (last 8 seasons)
Sells out anyway34
sellout crowds at 0 of 29 games that didn't matter: cupcakes, or a team expected to lose or having a losing season

Finances: U.S. Department of Education athletics disclosures, as reported by each school. Athletic directors: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA). Attendance: reported crowds vs stadium capacity.

Gelhow it is working right now · moves week to week
Gel57Playing above its parts — Results vs what its preseason projection expected, game by gamePlaying above its parts73Settled & sharp — A settled starting lineup and clean execution (penalties, turnovers) vs its own normalSettled & sharp48Alignment — Coaches and players telling the same story; the staff on one pageAlignmentsoonResilience — Confidence, and how the team sounds after adversityResiliencesoonFan & media mood — Expectations met or missed this season (preseason rank vs now), stronger for fan bases that react hard; fan and media sentiment joins laterFan & media mood64Coach security — The hard-facts hot seat, inverted: results vs expectation, recent seasons vs the program's norm, stakes, a new ADCoach security54
InternalOn-field fitExternal
Internal · how the program talkscoming

How the team talks in press conferences and interviews, each program against its own normal, so a naturally terse coach isn't read as upset. Being built program by program, Big Ten first.

▸Alignment
Coaches and players telling the same story; the staff on one page
soon
Coming: measured from press conferences and interviews.
▸Resilience
Confidence, and how the team sounds after adversity
soon
Coming: measured from press conferences and interviews.

Readings are team-level; we don't publish psychological readings of individual players.

On-field fit · how it is playing togetherlive

How the team is playing together this season: beating or missing its preseason expectation, a settled lineup, clean execution.

▸Playing above its parts
Results vs what its preseason projection expected, game by game
73
This season73
+4.1 points a game vs its preseason projection (4 games)
▸Settled & sharp
A settled starting lineup and clean execution (penalties, turnovers) vs its own normal
48
This season48
79% of starters kept game to game
External · pressure from outsidelive

Pressure from outside the building: the hard-facts hot seat now; this season's fan and media mood as it is measured.

▸Fan & media mood
Expectations met or missed this season (preseason rank vs now), stronger for fan bases that react hard; fan and media sentiment joins later
64
This season64
outside the AP poll: projected #127 preseason -> #126 in our Index now · results 3-3 (+5, recent games count more)
▸Coach security
The hard-facts hot seat, inverted: results vs expectation, recent seasons vs the program's norm, stakes, a new AD
54
This season54
Pete Lembo, year 3 · 50% wins so far · +4.1 pts a game vs preseason expectation · last two seasons +9% vs the program's norm

Dashed gold ring = typical (62). 20-50 is the warning zone; under 10 is a collapse. Spokes with no data yet are dashed and left out until they fill in. Chem blends the two halves, then places the blend among this season's teams.

Trend · Foundationeach program year runs Feb 1 to the title game
'1657'1766'1854'1948'2071'2115'2252'2347'2451'2561'262016 wk 1 vs UAlbany: 52 · L2016 wk 3 vs Nevada: 71 · L2016 wk 4 vs Army: 60 · W2016 wk 5 vs Boston College: 63 · L2016 wk 6 vs Kent State: 57 · L2016 wk 7 vs Ball State: 63 · L2016 wk 8 vs Northern Illinois: 65 · L2016 wk 9 vs Akron: 64 · W2016 wk 10 vs Ohio: 63 · L2016 wk 11 vs Miami (OH): 64 · L2016 wk 12 vs Western Michigan: 65 · L2016 wk 13 vs Bowling Green: 57 · L2017 wk 2 vs Army: 64 · L2017 wk 3 vs Colgate: 66 · W2017 wk 4 vs Florida Atlantic: 67 · W2017 wk 5 vs Kent State: 66 · W2017 wk 6 vs Western Michigan: 59 · L2017 wk 7 vs Northern Illinois: 61 · L2017 wk 8 vs Miami (OH): 62 · L2017 wk 9 vs Akron: 61 · L2017 wk 11 vs Bowling Green: 66 · W2017 wk 12 vs Ball State: 67 · W2017 wk 13 vs Ohio: 66 · W2018 wk 2 vs Temple: 58 · W2018 wk 3 vs Eastern Michigan: 59 · W2018 wk 4 vs Rutgers: 59 · W2018 wk 5 vs Army: 58 · L2018 wk 6 vs Central Michigan: 57 · W2018 wk 7 vs Akron: 58 · W2018 wk 8 vs Toledo: 54 · W2018 wk 10 vs Miami (OH): 52 · W2018 wk 11 vs Kent State: 56 · W2018 wk 12 vs Ohio: 55 · L2018 wk 13 vs Bowling Green: 56 · W2018 wk 14 vs Northern Illinois: 55 · L2018 wk 1 vs Troy: 54 · L2019 wk 2 vs Penn State: 43 · L2019 wk 3 vs Liberty: 43 · L2019 wk 4 vs Temple: 48 · W2019 wk 5 vs Miami (OH): 48 · L2019 wk 6 vs Ohio: 49 · L2019 wk 8 vs Akron: 42 · W2019 wk 9 vs Central Michigan: 50 · W2019 wk 10 vs Eastern Michigan: 50 · W2019 wk 12 vs Kent State: 51 · L2019 wk 13 vs Toledo: 51 · W2019 wk 14 vs Bowling Green: 52 · W2019 wk 1 vs Charlotte: 48 · W2020 wk 11 vs Miami (OH): 69 · W2020 wk 12 vs Bowling Green: 70 · W2020 wk 13 vs Kent State: 70 · W2020 wk 15 vs Akron: 71 · W2020 wk 16 vs Ball State: 71 · L2020 wk 1 vs Marshall: 71 · W2021 wk 2 vs Nebraska: 18 · L2021 wk 3 vs Coastal Carolina: 20 · L2021 wk 4 vs Old Dominion: 20 · W2021 wk 5 vs Western Michigan: 17 · L2021 wk 6 vs Kent State: 20 · L2021 wk 7 vs Ohio: 21 · W2021 wk 8 vs Akron: 19 · W2021 wk 9 vs Bowling Green: 21 · L2021 wk 11 vs Miami (OH): 20 · L2021 wk 12 vs Northern Illinois: 20 · L2021 wk 13 vs Ball State: 15 · L2022 wk 2 vs Holy Cross: 46 · L2022 wk 3 vs Coastal Carolina: 48 · L2022 wk 4 vs Eastern Michigan: 47 · W2022 wk 5 vs Miami (OH): 49 · W2022 wk 6 vs Bowling Green: 49 · W2022 wk 7 vs Massachusetts: 49 · W2022 wk 8 vs Toledo: 51 · W2022 wk 10 vs Ohio: 52 · L2022 wk 11 vs Central Michigan: 52 · L2022 wk 13 vs Kent State: 52 · L2022 wk 14 vs Akron: 53 · W2022 wk 1 vs Georgia Southern: 52 · W2023 wk 2 vs Fordham: 45 · L2023 wk 3 vs Liberty: 46 · L2023 wk 4 vs Louisiana: 45 · L2023 wk 5 vs Akron: 46 · W2023 wk 6 vs Central Michigan: 44 · W2023 wk 7 vs Bowling Green: 44 · L2023 wk 8 vs Kent State: 46 · W2023 wk 10 vs Toledo: 45 · L2023 wk 11 vs Ohio: 46 · L2023 wk 12 vs Miami (OH): 46 · L2023 wk 13 vs Eastern Michigan: 47 · L2024 wk 2 vs Missouri: 46 · L2024 wk 3 vs Massachusetts: 51 · W2024 wk 4 vs Northern Illinois: 51 · W2024 wk 5 vs UConn: 50 · L2024 wk 7 vs Toledo: 50 · W2024 wk 8 vs Western Michigan: 51 · L2024 wk 9 vs Ohio: 52 · L2024 wk 10 vs Akron: 51 · W2024 wk 12 vs Ball State: 52 · W2024 wk 13 vs Eastern Michigan: 52 · W2024 wk 14 vs Kent State: 53 · W2024 wk 1 vs Liberty: 51 · W2025 wk 2 vs Saint Francis: 61 · W2025 wk 3 vs Kent State: 63 · W2025 wk 4 vs Troy: 63 · L2025 wk 5 vs UConn: 63 · L2025 wk 6 vs Eastern Michigan: 59 · W2025 wk 8 vs Massachusetts: 62 · W2025 wk 9 vs Akron: 63 · L2025 wk 10 vs Bowling Green: 63 · W2025 wk 12 vs Central Michigan: 62 · L2025 wk 13 vs Miami (OH): 61 · L2025 wk 14 vs Ohio: 61 · L2026 wk 2 vs Florida International: 44 · L2026 wk 3 vs Penn State: 42 · L2026 wk 4 vs Robert Morris: 39 · W2026 wk 5 vs Western Michigan: 39 · L2026 wk 6 vs Toledo: 44 · W2026 wk 7 vs Massachusetts: 43 · next gametypical 62

Every game since 2016, one continuous line; thin rules separate seasons and the chip is where each season finished. Navy dot = win, red = loss. Big drops usually mean a new staff, a new quarterback or a rebuilt line.

Trend · Gelthis season, after each game
typical 62wk 2 vs Florida International · L · on-field 52 · fan mood 50522wk 3 vs Penn State · L · on-field 45 · fan mood 49473wk 4 vs Robert Morris · W · on-field 43 · fan mood 55484wk 5 vs Western Michigan · L · on-field 50 · fan mood 52515wk 6 vs Toledo · W · on-field 53 · fan mood 60566

How the team is working right now, rebuilt after each game from only the games so far: on-field fit (results vs preseason expectation, lineup settling, execution) and that week's fan & media mood. Coach security is part of today's Gel number but isn't rebuilt week by week yet. Navy frame = win, red = loss.

Continuity facts
Head coach
Year 3
at this school
Offensive coordinator
Year 1
new this season
Defensive coordinator
Year 1
new this season
HC & OC together
1 seasons
working together
QB with his OC
1 seasons
same play-caller
QB & receivers
3.4 games
started together, average
Offensive line pairs
2.9 games
started together, average
Returning starters
18%
from last season
Starter experience
5 starts
career average
Internal facts
Pressers read
soon
this season, coaches and players
Coach tone
soon
vs his own normal
"We" vs "I"
soon
share of team language
Owning mistakes
soon
vs pointing outward
Same story
soon
coaches and players agree
After losses
soon
how fast tone recovers
Leaders named
soon
players teammates point to
Newcomers
soon
transfers talked about as part of it
Openness
soon
forthcoming vs guarded
Measured from press conferences and interviews, program by program.
Climate facts
Athletic director
Mark Alnutt
year 9
Football spending
$14.1M
2024-25 federal report
Spending trend
+50%
over three years
Department revenue
$50M
all sports
Recruiting spend
$0.50M
men's teams
Home crowds
—
of capacity
Staff turnover
—
on-field staff new this season
Fan mood
soon
fans and local media
Coach & AD
soon
on the same page
Finances: U.S. Department of Education athletics disclosures. Athletic directors: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA).
Offense · games started togetherlatest lineup · 11 starters
Wright
Burch
Morrow
Clacks
Early
Walker
Arena
Natoli
Francavilla
Bellamy
Barr
QBJason Wright44423441413
RBMessiah Burch44423441413
WRChance Morrow44633661635
WRPatrick Clacks III22342331323
WRDwayne Early Jr.33323331312
TEClint Walker44633661635
OLGabriel Arena44633661635
OLNathan Natoli11111111111
OLNino Francavilla44633661635
OLJackson Bellamy11321331333
OLThomas Barr33532551535

Each square: games the two players have started together at this school (darker = more). Gray diagonal: the player's own starts here.

Defense · games started togetherlatest lineup · 11 starters
Clark
Climes
Stinchcomb
Vessah
Brown
Bergmann
Blackwell
Davis
Keough
Crawford
Greer
DLWill Clark66116666136
DLChristopher Climes66116666136
DLRex Stinchcomb11111111111
DLSedrick Vessah11111111111
LBSaVeon Brown6611146116136
LBZach Bergmann66116666136
DBKobi Blackwell6611116136136
DBRonnell Davis66116666136
DBJohn Keough11111111111
DBMikey Crawford33113333133
DBMiles Greer66116666136

Each square: games the two players have started together at this school (darker = more). Gray diagonal: the player's own starts here.

Chemistry is Scorebook's own rating of how well a program fits together, on the same all-time 0-99 scale as our other ratings (compared with every FBS team since 2016; 62 is typical, 20-50 signals something is wrong, and single digits are reserved for true collapses; each season is compared with its own era). This early version blends continuity (who has played and coached together, and for how long; it counts most) with the climate around the program; how the program talks joins as it is measured. Within continuity, quarterback-centered pairings count most because they held up when we tested them against results. How our ratings work →