Week 7 · CBSSN · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Murfreesboro, TN · 86° Clear · 7 mph
All-time series
Delaware 1 – 0 Middle Tennessee
1 since 2025
Last 2025 Delaware 31–28
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Delaware is favored: 63% to win, by about 5 points.
Betting markets like Delaware a bit less (54%, by 1.3).
Our model 63%Market 54%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | Delaware by 5.2 |
| Betting market | 54% | Delaware by 1.3 |
| Difference | 9 pts | 4 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 49% of the time (891 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
DelawarevsMiddle Tennessee
78
DE
12 tkl · 3 sacks · 4.5 TFL
DL
DEL +1068
DT
6 tkl · 0 sacks · 2 TFL
78
LB
29 tkl · 6 TFL · 4 sacks
LB
DEL +672
LB
11 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Delaware -2.5, now -1.3: moved 1.3 points toward Middle Tennessee
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.