Week 7 · ESPNU · AmFirst Stadium
Jacksonville, AL · 74° · 1 mph
All-time series
Florida International 1 – 3 Jacksonville State
4 since 2020
Last 2025 Florida International 27–21
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Jacksonville State is favored: 53% to win, by about 1 points.
Betting markets like Jacksonville State a bit more (56%, by 3).
Our model 53%Market 56%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | Jacksonville State by 1.1 |
| Betting market | 56% | Jacksonville State by 3 |
| Difference | 3 pts | 1.9 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
Florida InternationalvsJacksonville State
77
DB
18 tkl · 0 INT · 4 PD
DB
JXST +481
S
35 tkl · 2 INT · 3 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Jacksonville State -3, now -3: unchanged
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.