Building rivalry
Week 7 · ESPN+ · Cajun Field
Lafayette, LA · 85° · 8 mph
All-time series
Troy 12 – 8 Louisiana
20 since 1994
Last 2025 Troy 35–23
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Louisiana is favored: 60% to win, by about 4 points.
Betting markets like Louisiana a bit more (63%, by 4.3).
Our model 60%Market 63%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | Louisiana by 3.8 |
| Betting market | 63% | Louisiana by 4.3 |
| Difference | 3 pts | 0.4 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 50% of the time (1219 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
TroyvsLouisiana
77
LB
35 tkl · 5 TFL · 1.5 sacks
LB
TROY +275
LB
40 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Louisiana -4, now -4.3: moved 0.3 points toward Louisiana
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.