Building rivalry
Week 7 · ESPN2 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
Conway, SC · 77° · 7 mph
All-time series
App State 7 – 5 Coastal Carolina
12 since 2005 · CCU 4 straight
Last 2025 Coastal Carolina 45–37
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Coastal Carolina is favored: 58% to win, by about 3 points.
Betting markets like App State instead (52%, by 1.5).
Our model 58%Market 52%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | Coastal Carolina by 3.0 |
| Betting market | 52% | App State by 1.5 |
| Difference | 6 pts | 4.5 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
App StatevsCoastal Carolina
80
DL
14 tkl · 5 sacks · 6 TFL
DL
CCU +282
DE
30 tkl · 5 sacks · 7.5 TFL
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened App State -1.3, now -1.5: moved 0.3 points toward App State
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.