Week 7 · ESPN+ · Rynearson Stadium
Ypsilanti, MI · 56° · 9 mph
All-time series
Toledo 37 – 13 Eastern Michigan
50 since 1972 · TOL 3 straight
Last 2024 Toledo 29–28
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Toledo is favored: 59% to win, by about 4 points.
Betting markets like Toledo a bit more (67%, by 6.5).
Our model 59%Market 67%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | Toledo by 3.6 |
| Betting market | 67% | Toledo by 6.5 |
| Difference | 8 pts | 2.9 pts |
Gaps this small have landed on our side 49% of the time (891 games, 2019–2024): a lean, not a call. Track record →
The Matchup
ToledovsEastern Michigan
63
QB
1,565 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
QB
TOL +1350
QB
1,464 yds · 9 TD · 4 INT
86
DE
32 tkl · 5 sacks · 8 TFL
DL
TOL +383
DL
22 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 6 TFL
78
LB
44 tkl · 2 TFL · 2 sacks
LB
TOL +870
LB
51 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0 sacks
74
S
51 tkl · 0 INT · 4 PD
DB
even74
DB
14 tkl · 2 INT · 7 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Toledo -5.8, now -6.5: moved 0.8 points toward Toledo
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.