Week 7 · ESPN+ · UB Stadium
Amherst, NY · 54° Cloudy · 13 mph
All-time series
Massachusetts 2 – 10 Buffalo
12 since 1964 · BUF 3 straight
Last 2025 Buffalo 28–21
Pick a winner · locks at kickoff
Straight up, vs our line. Sign in to save a pick.
Buffalo is favored: 52% to win, by about 1 points.
Betting markets like Buffalo a bit more (64%, by 6.3).
Our model 52%Market 64%
| Win chance | Expected margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | Buffalo by 0.7 |
| Betting market | 64% | Buffalo by 6.3 |
| Difference | 12 pts | 5.6 pts |
Gaps this size have landed on our side 54% of the time (613 games, 2019–2024): where our line has historically held up. Track record →
The Matchup
MassachusettsvsBuffalo
72
RB
297 yds · 4 TD · 4 rec
RB
MASS +468
RB
489 yds · 2 TD · 6 rec
70
WR
28 rec · 327 yds · 2 TD
WR
BUF +979
WR
34 rec · 417 yds · 6 TD
72
DL
11 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2 TFL
DL
BUF +880
EDGE
15 tkl · 2 sacks · 3.5 TFL
75
LB
22 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1 sacks
LB
MASS +273
LB
49 tkl · 2 TFL · 1 sacks
74
S
10 tkl · 3 INT · 1 PD
DB
MASS +569
S
35 tkl · 0 INT · 2 PD
Same job, both sides — who is most likely to play, not the highest chip. Listed Out is skipped; Questionable stays in.
Opened Buffalo -3.3, now -6.3: moved 3 points toward Buffalo
Model track record
A public, timestamped record of every prediction vs. the market starts with the next update. Never gated.